Core views:
Incident 1: According to the announcement that the company has signed a major sales contract for daily operation, the company will sell about 2.5 billion solar monocrystalline cells/A-grade cells, including but not limited to 182 size solar cells, from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2025. If calculated at 8W/piece, the corresponding order size will reach 20 GW; this contract is a lock-up contract, and the monthly price will be based on the average price published on the PV-InfoLink website.
Incident 2: According to the announcement that the company plans to sign a cooperation agreement with the Rinkong Airport Management Committee, the company plans to jointly build 20GW slices+20GW battery production capacity with Jingke Energy. The project company has been established. The company holds 90% of the shares and 10% of Jinko Energy. The construction of the project is divided into two phases. The first phase of the 10GW silicon wafer+10GW battery is expected to start construction in April '24. 24Q4 achieved the first phase. The second phase will be carried out according to the project progress and market conditions; the plant and infrastructure will only be built on behalf of the government. Funds, of which 35% is owned by oneself Of the capital, 65% is self-funded.
Lock in TopCon leading orders to ensure full production and sales, and collaborate with main business equipment to enhance efficiency and cost advantages. According to the company's response on the Interactive Easy and Other Platform, the first phase of the company's 9GW (design capacity) TopCon project was launched at the end of 23. Based on a 7-day commissioning time for a single production line, production is expected to be completed in April '24. The remaining 9GW (design capacity) is scheduled to begin equipment installation after the first phase of production, and is expected to be put into operation at 24H1. We expect the company's TopCon battery shipments to reach 10GW in '24. This contrarian production expansion shows the company's confidence. According to the current production schedule, the shipment volume is expected to reach 30 GW in 25 years. The company TopCon leads the conversion efficiency industry, and uses the collaborative advantages of the equipment business to reduce non-silicon costs, and the profit advantage is expected to be highlighted.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The net profit for 23-25 is estimated to be 1.9/7.8/1.04 billion yuan. Considering the company's TopCon's industry-leading mass production efficiency and non-silicon costs, it will fully benefit from the high-efficiency battery dividend. It will give 13 times PE in 24 years, a reasonable value of 70.76 yuan/share, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. PV installations fell short of expectations, competition for new technologies intensified, prices in the industrial chain fluctuated greatly, production expansion fell short of expectations, etc.