The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the recruitment boom has structurally bottomed out and stabilized, the share of leading platforms has increased, and profit margins have continued to improve marginally due to scale effects. The headhunting business of traditional human service companies has stabilized, and the number of flexible employment and outsourcing business reserve orders and jobs will gradually increase in 24Q2, driving a continuous marginal improvement in the boom quarter.

▍ Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:

The recruitment boom has been structurally improved, and the leading recruitment leader Alpha is obvious.

① BOSS Direct Hiring released the 2023Q4 financial report. Revenue results all exceeded expectations, and the platform observed a structural recovery in recruitment demand. ② Looking at industry distribution: There has been a marked increase in recruitment demand for blue collar, service, export-related, advanced manufacturing, general workers in manufacturing, and some sales positions. ③ By enterprise type: The recruitment demand of large companies has begun to stabilize, the number of jobs posted is growing faster than that of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the willingness to pay for recruitment has begun to increase.

Demand recovery plus base effect, the improvement trend is expected to continue.

① Recruitment is charging the B-side. On the one hand, the stabilization of recruitment by large KA companies is a change in the labor structure, and on the other hand, there is also a forward-looking trend of macroeconomic expectations; ② Looking at the year-on-year growth rate, the trend will improve quarterly: 23Q1 is a high point of recruitment and ingenuity boom, then decline; therefore, the 24-year growth rate will slow down and then be faster; ③ The platform is more prosperous, and BOSS's own share is contributing to an increase in labor demand; ④ The industry segment's prosperity also represents marginal changes in employment demand; Smart labor utilization and outsourcing are also representative of marginal changes in employment demand; It is affected by macroeconomic sentiment, but it is more order-driven.

Recent research on the human resources service industry chain. The results are quite optimistic. Some industry chain leaders have actively adapted to the new structure and momentum of economic development, and reserve orders are sufficient. After March, they will enter the peak recruitment and recruitment season. The number of new jobs and personnel is expected to accelerate, driving marginal improvement, and will be highly resilient under a 23-year low base.

The platform combines growth and economic improvement, and outsourcing and ingenuity are expected to repair valuations.

① Recruitment is the best track for personnel service. BOSS direct employment is improving, the pattern is improving, and profit margins are increasing; and international expansion provides more room. The 2024/25 adjusted performance is expected to be 2,648/3.809 billion yuan, corresponding to the 24/25 valuation of 25x/17xPE; ② Cree's stock price has fully reflected procyclical economic expectations, sufficient order reserves, and a low base after equity incentives. It is expected that the 24/25 performance will be 2.60/313 million yuan, a growth rate of 30%/25%, corresponding to the 24/25 valuation of 19x/ 16xPE; ③ According to order reserves, Beijing Manpower's performance growth is relatively moderate, but due to the increase in the volume of leading customers, there will still be a 10-15% increase in performance. The 24/25 performance is expected to be 10.09/1210 billion yuan, corresponding to the 24/25 valuation of 11/9xPE.

Risk warning:

Economic fluctuations have an impact on recruitment and employment conditions; increased industry competition has an impact on profit margins.