Hot news
Yellen: US interest rates are unlikely to fall back to pre-pandemic levels, and slowing rent increases will push inflation back down
Former Federal Reserve Chairman and current US Treasury Secretary Yellen was asked why the forecast released by the White House on Monday showed interest rate expectations for the next few years were significantly higher than a year ago. She said, “I think this reflects the current market reality and the predictions we have seen in the private sector, that is, US bond yields seem unlikely to return to pre-COVID-19 low levels.” Yellen anticipates that slowing housing cost increases will help drive the US inflation rate down in 2024. At the same time, she refuted concerns about stagnation, insisting that progress on inflation has not stopped.
Demand for the $22 billion 30-year US bond bid was strong, and long-term US bond yields narrowed in the short term
The final bid interest rate for this 30-year US Treasury auction was 4.331%, lower than the bid interest rate of 4.360% from the previous bid sale. The pre-issue interest rate was 4.352%, 2.1 basis points higher than the final bid interest rate. The gap was the biggest since January last year. It was also the fourth consecutive time that the pre-issue interest rate was higher than the final bid interest rate. Compared with other maturing US bonds, the results of the recent bid sales of 30-year US bonds have been good.
Analyst: There may be no bubble in US stocks, but a pullback may be imminent
According to Bank of America data, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 25% in the past five months. This has only happened 10 times since the 1930s. Some indicators are also sounding the alarm. According to Miller Tabak data, the S&P 500 weekly relative strength index (RSI) climbed to slightly above 76, a level rarely surpassed since 2000. This indicator measures whether stocks are overbought or oversold. There was a sharp sell-off after the indicator surpassed this level the last two times. Matt Maley, the agency's chief market strategist, said: “None of this means we're seeing a major long-term top.” “However, it does tell me that the time is ripe for a substantial pullback.”
Japanese companies will raise wages the most in decades, and the prospects for interest rate hikes will be further strengthened
Wage increases in various industries in Japan have risen sharply compared to 2023, paving the way for the Bank of Japan to end its negative interest rate policy. Toyota announced that the employee bonus will be raised from 6.7 months' salary to 7.6 months' salary, making it the highest annual bonus in history. Nippon Steel announced a 14.2% salary increase, including regular salary increases.
The European Union passed the world's first major artificial intelligence regulation law, which is expected to take effect in May
The EU's AI bill was approved by the European Parliament on Wednesday and is expected to take effect in May. At that time, all EU member states will comply with the AI Act. The EU's AI Act is currently considered the most comprehensive AI regulatory standard in the world. By setting strict standards for AI, the EU wants to prevent AI misuse and risks, such as privacy violations, discrimination, and other potential harms.
Resumption of US stock trading
The NASDAQ closed down 0.54%, and Tesla hit a new closing low since mid-May last year
The three major US stock indices closed with mixed gains and losses. The Dow rose 0.1%, the NASDAQ fell 0.54%, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.19%.
Most of the big tech stocks fell; Tesla fell more than 4%, a new closing low since mid-May last year. Apple fell more than 1%, and Netflix, Microsoft, and Meta fell slightly;
Chip stocks generally closed down, with Intel falling more than 4%, AMD and Micron Technology falling more than 3%, and Nvidia falling more than 1%;
Popular Chinese securities had mixed ups and downs. Manbang rose more than 12%, Pinduoduo rose more than 3%, Baidu and JD rose more than 2%, and Ideal and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 3%.
Wall Street is increasingly pessimistic about Tesla, and Wells Fargo calls it a “growth company that hasn't grown”
Wells Fargo will$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The stock rating was downgraded to a “reduction in holdings” on the grounds that the company's price reduction strategy is gradually weakening the boost in demand. The bank's analysts wrote that Tesla is a “growth company that hasn't grown.” He pointed out that sales in the second half of 2023 increased by only 3% compared to the first half of the year, while prices fell by 5%. Wells Fargo lowered Tesla's target price from $200 to $120. This is currently one of the lowest price targets given by Wall Street for Tesla, which means that the stock will drop another 30%. Tesla closed down more than 4% on Wednesday.
US Steel plummeted by nearly 13%, and Biden is said to be interfering with Japan Steel's acquisition
$United States Steel (X.US)$The stock price plummeted nearly 13% overnight. Earlier, there were media reports that US President Joe Biden plans to interfere with Nippon Steel's deal to buy American Steel. People familiar with the matter said that Biden plans to publicly express concern about Nippon Steel's deal to acquire American Steel. According to reports, Biden plans to issue a statement on the deal before Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits the US in April. US officials and lawyers drafted this statement, and the White House privately informed the Japanese government of Biden's decision.
Microsoft will release a secure artificial intelligence assistant to help customers track down hackers
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The company plans to release an artificial intelligence tool on April 1 to help cybersecurity workers generate summaries of suspicious events and find cunning methods used by hackers to conceal their intentions. Microsoft launched a secure version of Copilot almost a year ago and has been testing it with enterprise customers ever since. Microsoft executive Andrew Conway said the testers included British Petroleum (BP Plc) and Dow Chemical Co. (Dow Chemical Co.) It currently has “hundreds of partners and customers.”
Electric vehicle startup Fiske plummeted after the market and has hired restructuring advisors to help it file for bankruptcy
$Fisker (FSR.US)$US stocks plummeted more than 46% after the market. According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter revealed that the troubled electric vehicle startup Fisker (Fisker) has hired restructuring advisors to help it file for bankruptcy. The person familiar with the matter mentioned above said that Fiske recently warned that he might run out of cash this year. The car company reported last month that it had sales of $273 million last year and more than $1 billion in debt. It issued a so-called continuing operation warning last month, saying there were “major doubts” about its ability to maintain operations.
Biopharmaceutical company Spruce Biosciences fell more than 73% after the market
As of press time, the biopharmaceutical company$Spruce Biosciences (SPRB.US)$After the market fell more than 73%, the company announced that the results of the Cahmelia-203 study on congenital adrenal hyperplasia had failed to reach the main end.
Top 20 US stock turnover
Hong Kong Market Outlook
Beishui swept away Hong Kong stock ETFs and sold Meituan over HK$200 million
On March 13 (Wednesday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$11.419 billion in Hong Kong stocks.
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$3,956 million, HK$1,218 million and HK$579 million respectively;
$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Net sales were HK$201 million, HK$148 million and HK$103 million respectively.
AIA Insurance's new annualized premiums in 2023 increased 45% to a record high. Profit attributable to shareholders was US$3.764 billion, an increase of 13% over the previous year
$AIA (01299.HK)$Announcing the 2023 results, total weighted premium income increased 7% from 2022 to US$37.939 billion, and insurance service performance was US$5.09 billion, down 6.86% year on year; net investment performance was US$1,547 million, up 1.8 times year on year; profit attributable to AIA Holdings Limited shareholders was US$3.764 billion, up 13% year on year; profit per share was 0.33 US dollars, and the final dividend was HK119.07 cents per share.
Alibaba reportedly plans to invest 1.1 billion US dollars in South Korea within 3 years to build a logistics center and expand business
According to several media sources, it is reported that$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$The plan is to invest 1.1 billion US dollars to build a logistics center and expand business in Korea over the next 3 years. According to Alibaba's business strategy documents, as part of the investment plan, Alibaba plans to spend 200 million US dollars to build a logistics center this year, and also plans to invest 100 million US dollars to help small and medium-sized South Korean enterprises sell products in the global market. Alibaba will also invest 100 billion won to protect consumer rights. A relevant person from Alibaba responded, “We are unable to disclose specific plans yet, but we will continue to expand our investment in South Korea. In the long run, we will work with local sellers to protect consumers and help small and medium businesses enter global markets.”
Today's attention
Keywords: monthly retail sales rate in the US in February, PPI in February, number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week; Adobe, Futu Holdings Ltd., Shell financial reports
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the monthly rate of US retail sales, known as “horror data,” will be the focus. In addition, major data such as the number of US jobless claims at the beginning of the week and the US PPI for February also attracted market attention.
Retail sales data will help the market understand the health of American consumers. Retail sales in the US fell 0.8% month-on-month in January. The decline was the biggest in nearly a year, falling far short of expectations. Currently, the market generally expects that retail sales in the US will increase slightly by 0.3% month-on-month in February. If the data slows down again beyond expectations, it may strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June.
In terms of financial reporting, well-known image software manufacturers$Adobe (ADBE.US)$，$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$,$AIA (01299.HK)$Key companies will be listed later.
Analysts generally expect Adobe's revenue for the 2024 Q1 quarter to reach US$5.145 billion, up 10.53% year on year, and earnings per share of US$3.37, up 24.53% year on year. Furthermore, according to public data, Wall Street analysts gave Adobe a consistent rating of moderate purchases. The average target price was $653.43, an increase of about 18% from the closing price on March 8.
Futubull Chen read:
Nothing new under the sun.
—William Gann
edit/new