Key points of investment
Company announcement: The GAC Group produced 84,767 passenger cars in February 2024 (the February months mentioned below are 2024), or -51.58%/-46.18%, respectively; sales volume was 98,363 units, or -38.98% -25.41%, respectively. Among them, 1) Guangqi Honda produced 17,646 vehicles in February, -63.70%/-45.44%, respectively; sales volume was 29,107 units, or -29.39%/-17.50%, respectively. 2) GAC Toyota produced 37,611 vehicles in February, 43.70%/-45.67%, respectively; sales volume was 40,024 units, or -36.67%/-21.57%, respectively. 3) GAC Trumpchi produced 22,119 vehicles in February, -17.07%/-41.19%, respectively; sales volume was 18,472 units, or -26.54%/-45.35%. 4) GAC Aian produced 7,273 vehicles in February, -75.68%/-59.00%, respectively; sales volume was 10,006 vehicles, or -66.74%/-9.08%, respectively.
The Group's overall wholesale ratio was -25.41% month-on-month, and Aian performed well. 1) By brand, Guangben Wholesale declined month-on-month, with sales of the Haoying series among key models +55.4% year-on-year in January-January. Guangfeng's wholesale sales declined year-on-month in February. The new 9th generation Camry was officially launched on March 6. A total of 2.0L gasoline version and 2.0HEV electric hybrid dual-engine version were launched. A total of 9 models were equipped with a total of 9 models, with a price range of 1718-206,800 yuan. Trumpchi's wholesale sales declined year-on-month in February, with cumulative sales volume of GS3 1-2 +156.8% year-on-year. AEON's February wholesale performance was better than the Group's overall month-on-month. In terms of new cars, the AION Y Plus 510 smart driving version and 610 smart driving version were launched on February 18, with an official guide price starting at 145,800 yuan; on March 3, the pure electric pricing company AION Y Plus Xingyao went on sale for 99,800 yuan. 2) By vehicle type, car production in February was 23,532 units, -71.77%/-55.09% YoY; sales volume was 30,203 units, -60.06%/-26.59% YoY respectively. The monthly production of SUV2 vehicles was 44,271 vehicles, 41.77%/-40.51%, respectively; sales volume was 53,831 units, -20.14%/-21.36% YoY respectively. MPV2's monthly production was 16,964 vehicles, +8.24%/-44.68% YoY; sales volume was 14,329 units, -21.10%/-35.69% YoY respectively.
In February, the entire group went to the warehouse. According to our self-built inventory system, the GAC Group's overall inventory decreased in February. The company's inventory for the month was 13,596 vehicles (compared to January 2024), and Guangben/Guangfeng/Trumpchi/Aian enterprise inventory was -11,461/-2,413/+3,647/ -2,733 vehicles, respectively (compared to January 2024).
Profit prediction and investment rating: The autonomous energy ecological industry chain has achieved a closed loop layout, and the electric transformation of joint venture brands has accelerated. We maintain GAC Group's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 at 65.2/71.7/8.64 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE of 14/13/11 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in passenger car demand fell short of expectations; the increase in the penetration rate of new energy sources fell short of expectations, etc.