Key points of investment
Key points of the announcement: SAIC Motor Group's production in February 2024 (February mean February 2024 below) was 189,652 vehicles, with a year-on-month ratio of -38.83%/-22.24%, and sales volume of 207,846 vehicles, or -31.03%/-15.14%. Among them: SAIC passenger cars produced and sold 32,559/32,930 units in February, respectively, -42.76%/-43.71%, and -29.92%/-34.91%, respectively; SAIC Volkswagen's February production and sales volume was 68,839/63,003 units, -11.14%/-14.05%, respectively, and -26.22%/-33.72% month-on-month; SAIC-GM's February production and sales volume was 8,282/13,500 vehicles, respectively -88.67%/-1980.%. , -61.52%/-62.50% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling's production and sales volume in February was 58,079/75,000 vehicles, respectively, -20.87%/+4.17% year-on-year, and +12.75%/+114.29% month-on-month respectively.
Wholesale sales in February were -31.03%/-15.14% year-on-month, and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year. 1) By brand, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Zhiji Auto performed better year over year. SAIC Volkswagen wholesale declined year-on-month. Among them, the monthly sales volume of the ID series was 7,500+ units; SAIC passenger car wholesale declined year-on-month; the Zhiji LS6 sold a total of 6171 units in 2024, and Zhiji Auto received more than 8 billion yuan in Series B equity financing. 2) By energy type, 61,000 new energy vehicles were sold at the group level, +36.63% over the same period last year. At the group level, the number of NEV production batches in February was 593/610,000 units, +19.59%/+36.63% year-on-year, and -17.03%/-5.22% month-on-month respectively. In February, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy sources was 29.34%, +14.53/+3.07pct, respectively. 3) Looking at domestic and foreign markets, SAIC Motor exported 57,300 vehicles in February, or -31.63%/-10.78% year-on-month, respectively. Among them, the SAIC MG brand delivered more than 20,000 vehicles in developed European countries. Ten new SAIC smart electric cars, including the Zhiji L6 and MG3HEV, were showcased at the Geneva International Motor Show as iconic products with innovative technology.
In February, SAIC Motor Group went to storage as a whole. SAIC Motor Group companies had an inventory of 18,194 vehicles in February (compared to January 2024), while SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC-Passenger Vehicle, and SAIC-GM-Wuling had inventories of +5,836, -5,218, -371, and -16,921 units respectively (compared to January 2024).
Profit prediction and investment rating: The company's core technology, new energy three-power system+intelligent software and hardware full-stack layout, smart self promotes high-end independent brands, while the company's export performance continues to be impressive. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 at 134.2/166.2/22.71 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.16/1.44/1.96 yuan, and PE of 13/10/8 times, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in passenger car demand fell short of expectations; the increase in the penetration rate of new energy fell short of expectations; and the industry price war exceeded expectations.