Real estate industry tracking

What are the benefits and incentives of the explosion in real estate stocks?

券商中國 · Mar 12 15:26

来源：券商中国

在股市上，房地产的影响力太大了！

今天，A股和港股的地产板块大爆发。$房地产ETF (512200.SH)$大涨超4%，传统房企$招商蛇口 (001979.SZ)$涨超6%，$万科A (000002.SZ)$、$保利发展 (600048.SH)$、$金地集团 (600383.SH)$股价皆上涨超5%。香港市场房地产板块亦大涨。

那么，究竟有何利好刺激呢？从市场传闻来看，一则关于“要求银行强化对国有支持的地产发展商万科融资支持，并呼吁债券人考虑延长私人债务到期期限”的消息在投资圈流传，可能是引发地产股行情的主要原因。据券商中国记者向某股份银行人士了解，确实存在传闻中的一些现象。

A股市场还将逻辑进行了延伸，与地产板块息息相关的消费板块今天亦大幅上涨，特别是白酒板块有力地封杀了大盘下跌的空间。而向来信奉“地产安，则天下安”的外资亦在港股市场风生水起，好不热闹。

地产股大爆发

今天，盘面上热点的逻辑起点应该来自地产股。下午，地产股集体大爆发。$我爱我家 (000560.SZ)$、$中交地产 (000736.SZ)$先后涨停，招商蛇口涨逾6%，万科A、金地集团涨超5%。

港股市场上，地产股的表现亦非常抢眼。$龙湖集团 (00960.HK)$大涨超15%，$万科企业 (02202.HK)$大涨超10%，$融创中国 (01918.HK)$、$越秀地产 (00123.HK)$、$绿城中国 (03900.HK)$等皆出现明显涨幅。

与此同时，地产公司债表现亦非常给力。万科多只债券午后亦上涨，“20万科08”涨超8%，“22万科05”涨超6%，“22万科06”涨超4%，“20万科06”、“21万科04”涨超3%。金地、旭辉、龙湖债亦皆大涨。

之所以说，地产股是逻辑的起点。是因为，与房地产相关度非常高的消费板，今天也迎来了大涨。$贵州茅台 (600519.SH)$、$五粮液 (000858.SZ)$、$山西汾酒 (600809.SH)$等涨幅都比较大，$酒ETF (512690.SH)$一度上涨近5%。这些股票的表现对大盘形成有力支撑。

那么，地产股突然崛起，利好因素来自何方？消息面上，一则“要求银行强化对国有支持的地产发展商万科融资支持，并呼吁债券人考虑延长私人债务到期期限”的传闻流传非常广。据券商中国记者向某股份行人士了解，确实存在一些支持。

其实，金融对房地产的支持力度在增大。今天下午$金科股份 (000656.SZ)$也传来消息，金科武汉桃湖美镇项目率先获得兴业银行武汉分行有效支持，完成融资上账工作。消息称，金科股份在全国已有72个项目入围“白名单”，重庆、河南、山东、广西、湖北、辽宁等地均有落地，部分项目已开始对接融资。金科股份表示，公司更多符合要求的项目正在地方政府的支持下与金融机构沟通，有望陆续加入。进入“白名单”后，金科股份相关项目将获得新的融资支持，项目开发运营的资金压力将得到进一步缓解，有利于切实做好保交楼、稳民生工作，助力公司经营回归良性循环。

楼市出现“小阳春”？

最近，深圳楼市的确出现一些回暖的苗头。

深圳中原地产研究中心数据显示，年后开始，深圳新房热度就逐渐走高。上周（2月26日—3月3日）中原代理新房周来访量近7000，环比上升四成。一手周成交343套，环比上涨48.5%；二手周成交893套，环比上涨34.1%。乐有家研究中心披露的该平台看房量显示，上周新房看房量持续上涨，环比涨幅33%，是去年10月以来的第二高点。

据深房中协统计，上周全市二手房成交（含自助）录得1085套，环比增长14.1%。政策效应还在持续发力，二手房周成交量快速突破千套关口。根据公开在售二手房源量数据统计，2024年3月4日，深圳全市共有53753套有效二手房源在售，较上周增加1897套。

据海通国际的数据，18城2024年第10周二手房成交量为142万平方米，环比增长9%，同比下降40%。其中一线城市二手房成交面积30万平方米，环比下降10%，同比下降35%。二线城市二手房成交面积106万平方米，环比增长16%，同比下降41%。三线城市二手房成交面积6.0万平方米，环比增长7%，同比下降51%。

18城2024年3月1日—7日二手房成交面积142万平方米，环比增长26%，同比下降39%；一线城市30万平方米，环比增长35%，同比下降31%；二线城市106万平方米，环比增长24.5%，同比下降40%；三线城市6万平方米，环比增长8%，同比下降41%。

政策支持有多大？

据中金公司观察，政策对于房地产企业的支持力度有所加强。

政策导向方面，政府工作报告中提到“不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持”，相比2023年12月中央经济工作会议、2023年11月金融机构座谈会的提法“一视同仁满足不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求”增加“给予支持”的表述，态度更加明确。

此外，提出项目“白名单”：2024年1月建立城市房地产融资协调机制，按照“一项目一方案”提出项目“白名单”；根据住建部的统计，截至3月初全国31个省份312个城市建立该机制，“白名单”项目达到了6000多个，其中83%是民营企业和混合所有制企业的项目；截至2月底，商业银行已经审批贷款超过2000亿元，截至2月20日已投放294亿元。

发布经营物业贷新规：2024年1月24日，人民银行、金融监管总局发布经营物业贷新规，明确房地产企业可通过经营物业贷抵押获取贷款，期限一般不超过10年，最长不得超过15年，并拓宽贷款用途，可用于偿还存量债务。新规出台后，3月6日金地集团公告向交通银行申请经营性物业抵押贷款融资40亿元，期限最长不超过15年。

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China

Real estate has too much influence on the stock market!

Today, the real estate sector of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exploded.$China Southern CSI All Share Real Estate ETF (512200.SH)$Surging by more than 4%, traditional housing enterprises$China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979.SZ)$An increase of more than 6%,$China Vanke Co.,Ltd. (000002.SZ)$,$Poly Developments and Holdings Group (600048.SH)$,$Gemdale Corporation (600383.SH)$Shares all increased by more than 5%. The real estate sector in the Hong Kong market also surged.

So, what are the benefits and incentives? Judging from market rumors, a piece of news circulating in the investment community about “requesting banks to strengthen financing support for state-owned real estate developers Vanke and calling on debtors to consider extending the maturity period of private debt” is probably the main reason for the real estate stock market. According to what a Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm learned from a stock bank source, there are indeed some of the rumored phenomena.

The A-share market has also extended its logic. The consumer sector, which is closely related to the real estate sector, has also risen sharply today. In particular, the liquor sector has strongly blocked room for general market decline. However, foreign investors who have always believed in “safe real estate means a safe world” are also flourishing in the Hong Kong stock market, so it's not booming.

Real estate stocks exploded

Today, the logical starting point for the hot spots on the market should come from real estate stocks. In the afternoon, there was a collective explosion of real estate stocks.$5i5j Holding Group (000560.SZ)$,$CCCG Real Estate Corporation (000736.SZ)$It went up and down one after another. China Merchants Shekou rose more than 6%, and Vanke A and Jindi Group rose more than 5%.

In the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of real estate stocks was also very impressive.$LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK)$It surged more than 15%,$CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$It surged more than 10%,$SUNAC (01918.HK)$,$YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK)$,$GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK)$All of these showed significant increases.

At the same time, real estate corporate bonds also performed very well. Vanke Duo bonds also rose in the afternoon. “200,000 Ke 08” rose more than 8%, “220,000 Ke 05” rose more than 6%, “220,000 Ke 06” rose more than 4%, and “200,000 Ke 06” and “210,000 Ke 04” rose more than 3%. Goldland, Xuhui, and Longhu bonds have also surged.

The reason is that real estate stocks are the logical starting point. This is because the consumer market, which is highly related to real estate, is also experiencing a sharp rise today.$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)$,$Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ)$,$Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809.SH)$After that, the increase was quite large,$Penghua CSI Alcoholic Drink ETF (512690.SH)$At one point, it rose nearly 5%. The performance of these stocks provided strong support to the general market.

So, where did the favorable factors for the sudden rise of real estate stocks come from? According to the news, a rumor that “banks are being asked to strengthen financing support for state-supported real estate developer Vanke and called on debtors to consider extending the maturity period of private debts” are widely circulating. According to the brokerage firm's Chinese reporter from a stock dealer, there is indeed some support.

In fact, financial support for real estate is growing. This afternoon$Jinke Property Group (000656.SZ)$There was also news that Jinke's Wuhan Taohu Mei Town project was the first to receive effective support from the Wuhan branch of Industrial Bank to complete the financing process. According to the news, Jinke Co., Ltd. has made 72 projects on the “white list” nationwide. They have all been launched in Chongqing, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Hubei, Liaoning, etc., and some projects have already begun to be connected for financing. Jinke Co., Ltd. said that more of the company's projects that meet the requirements are being communicated with financial institutions with the support of local governments, and it is expected that they will join one after another. After entering the “white list”, projects related to Jinke Co., Ltd. will receive new financing support, and the financial pressure on project development and operation will be further alleviated, which is conducive to effectively securing the handover of buildings, stabilizing people's livelihood, and helping the company's operations return to a virtuous cycle.

Is there a “Xiaoyangchun” in the property market?

Recently, the Shenzhen property market has indeed shown some signs of recovery.

According to data from the Shenzhen Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, the popularity of new homes in Shenzhen gradually increased after a few years. Last week (February 26 to March 3), the number of weekly visits to new housing agents in the Central Plains was nearly 7,000, up 40% from the previous month. First-hand weekly transactions were 343 units, up 48.5% month-on-month; second-hand weekly sales were 893 units, up 34.1% month-on-month. According to the Leyoujia Research Center, the platform's house viewing volume showed that the number of new homes viewed continued to rise last week, with a month-on-month increase of 33%, the second highest since October last year.

According to statistics from the Shenzhen Housing Association, the city recorded 1,085 second-hand housing transactions (including self-service) last week, an increase of 14.1% over the previous week. The effects of the policy continue to gain strength, and the weekly second-hand housing turnover quickly broke through the 1,000-unit mark. According to publicly available second-hand property statistics, on March 4, 2024, a total of 5,3753 active second-hand properties were on sale in Shenzhen, an increase of 1,897 units over last week.

According to data from Haitong International, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities in the 10th week of 2024 was 1.42 million square meters, an increase of 9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 40%. Among them, the second-hand housing transaction area in first-tier cities was 300,000 square meters, down 10% month-on-month and 35% year-on-year. Second-hand housing transaction area in second-tier cities was 1.06 million square meters, up 16% month-on-month and down 41% year-on-year. Second-hand housing transaction area in third-tier cities was 60,000 square meters, up 7% month-on-month and 51% year-on-year down.

From March 1 to 7, 2024, the second-hand housing transaction area in 18 cities was 1.42 million square meters, up 26% month-on-month, down 39%; first-tier cities were 300,000 square meters, up 35% month-on-month, down 31%; second-tier cities were 1.06 million square meters, up 24.5% month-on-month, down 40%; third-tier cities were 60,000 square meters, up 8% month-on-month, down 41% year-on-year.

How much policy support is there?

According to CICC's observations, the policy's support for real estate companies has been strengthened.

In terms of policy orientation, the government work report mentioned that “the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different forms of ownership should be treated equally and supported”. Compared with the December 2023 Central Economic Work Conference and the November 2023 Financial Institutions Symposium, the attitude is more clear, adding the expression “providing support” to “treat the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different forms of ownership equally”.

In addition, a “white list” of projects was proposed: an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism was established in January 2024, and a “white list” of projects was proposed in accordance with the “one project, one plan”; according to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Construction, 312 cities in 31 provinces and 312 cities across the country had established this mechanism, reaching more than 6,000 “white list” projects, of which 83% were private enterprises and mixed ownership projects; by the end of February, commercial banks had approved loans of more than 200 billion yuan, and had invested 29.4 billion yuan as of February 20.

New operating property loan regulations issued: On January 24, 2024, the People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Financial Supervision issued new regulations on operating property loans, making it clear that real estate companies can obtain loans through operating property loan mortgages. The period is generally no more than 10 years, the maximum period should not exceed 15 years, and the use of loans has been broadened, so that they can be used to repay existing debts. After the new regulations were introduced, Jindi Group announced on March 6 that it would apply for 4 billion yuan of mortgage financing for operating properties from the Bank of Communications for a maximum period of not more than 15 years.

Editor/jayden

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