Data tracking: According to the business adviser and Mama Chan, Yifidan's “3.8” full-cycle sales volume was 0.53 million yuan (+494%), of which Yoy on the Tmall channel +61% and Yoy on the Douyin channel +794%. Since the main series 3.6, ManXiaoman's live broadcasts have contributed nearly 30 million in sales. The overall performance in Q1 is expected to exceed market expectations.
Ifidan: Scarce luxury mentality+pattern optimization+positioning is more clear. It is expected that 24 high increases will have strong certainty (1) A share, scarce luxury mentality+ the price decline of leading top luxury leaders will release a share to guarantee the continuation of growth.
1) Qualification: Luxury mentality, which is scarce in domestic beauty companies. It focuses on categories such as masks and sunscreen, and is separated from the main luxury items for the head. 2) Competition: Strong promotion by Douyin, the leading luxury leader in 23 years, led to a decline in prices, and part of the share was relinquished to the advantage of Yifidan. 3) Space: The estimated customer unit price is about 2,700 yuan based on the large single product Super CP package, which corresponds to the penetration of Chinese luxury goods consumers by only one digit. There is still plenty of room for the leading luxury brand La Mer in China with sales exceeding 6 billion (Euromonitor caliber).
(2) The company's reform is determined to exceed market expectations. Strengthening the top luxury positioning and style of play in 24 years will be an important inflection point for growth. Recently, Ifidan has continued to stand out in terms of marketing investment and implementation, showing the company's determination to shift to high-end brand-driven reforms. The brand clearly positions the top luxury and stabilizes the high-end price band as the core; single products are still mainly CP gift boxes, which are expected to gradually expand the price range in the future; online volume+offline top department stores have entered the high-end position.
(3) The profit side is expected to maintain a high level. Ifidan's partnership with Dabo is not a superpower but is looking for high-fit KOL cooperation. Furthermore, during the promotion period, there will be no price reduction or misplacement, and sales expenses will be strongly controlled, and the overall net interest rate is expected to be stable.
Investment suggestions: The company's determination to shift to high-end brand-driven reforms has exceeded expectations: (1) the core brand, Ifidan, has a scarce luxury mentality, and at the same time, the company's share is beneficial to Yifidan, and there is strong certainty in brand growth after clarifying the style of play; (2) other private brands and agency brands are expected to usher in structural optimization, with private brands focusing on profit, and strong profitable brands such as Mestick and ESI in the agency business. Continued optimism about multiple drivers, such as Ifidan volume+ increasing the bottom level of R&D, continuous empowerment, and high potential of CP to empower high-quality agency brand matrices. The estimated net profit for 2023/2024 is 340 million yuan, corresponding to 24PE about 16x, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: competition in the industry intensifies; marketing investment cost management falls short of expectations; new brand incubation risks; new category development teams do not meet requirements, etc.