千城万店战略稳步推进，经营提效拐点初现公司稳中求进，加快门店拓展与加强门店建设，肉制品加工业老店的同店收入按同比口径看已有所恢复，整体肉制品加工业营业收入下滑趋势同比收窄；同时米制品业务通过提升管理精细化程度，营收止住下滑趋势，2023 年同比增长5.31%。On March 11, 2024, Huangshanghuang released the 2023 Annual Results Report.
Key points of investment
The year-on-year increase in performance was mainly due to falling costs and falling expenses, which boosted the company to release a quick performance report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,921 billion yuan, a decrease of -1.7%; net profit to mother was 171 million yuan, an increase of 129%, after deducting net profit of 48 million yuan from non-return to mother, an increase of 1041%. 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of 1.2%. Net profit attributable to mother was -30 million yuan, 2022Q4 net profit for the same period was -54 billion yuan, net profit after deducting non-return to mother was -0.39 million yuan, and 2022Q4 net profit after deducting non-return to mother during the same period was -66 million yuan. We judge that the cost of raw materials, mainly duck by-products, declined year-on-year, compounded by a year-on-year decline in market promotion and promotion expenses, which unleashed performance flexibility.
The strategy of thousands of stores in a thousand cities progressed steadily, and the inflection point for improving operating efficiency began. Same-store revenue from old meat processing stores has recovered on a year-on-year basis, and the overall downward trend in meat processing industry revenue has narrowed year on year; at the same time, the rice products business stopped the downward trend by improving the level of management refinement, with revenue growth of 5.31% year on year in 2023.
Profit forecasting
In the short term, the company's same-store revenue situation is slightly pressured by the external consumption environment, but from a medium-term perspective, we are optimistic that the company's operations will return to the right track starting in 2024. The stores have shown a rapid expansion trend, and concentration will continue to increase. We expect EPS to be 0.25/0.32 yuan in 2024-2025, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 33/26 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Downward macroeconomic risks, the pandemic is dragging down consumption, costs falling short of expectations, and the pace of opening stores falls short of expectations, etc.
