Key points of investment
The global leader in refrigeration and air conditioning electrical components. The traditional business is expected to maintain considerable growth in the future, benefiting from increased demand for inverter air conditioners and increased demand for refrigeration and air conditioning in Europe. The global refrigeration and air conditioning parts market is expected to maintain a 4% CAGR sales growth in 2022 to 2027. As an industry leader, the company continued to increase its market share. The business's revenue CAGR in 2018-2022 reached 10.13% (far exceeding 2.37% in the same period of the industry).
We expect the company's revenue from this business to continue to grow significantly above the industry average over the next three years.
High industry growth+category expansion, rapid growth in the automotive thermal management business ASP and increased penetration rate of new energy vehicles, driving the global automotive thermal management market to maintain high growth (CAGR = 31.14% in 22-27). The company has abundant customer resources and sufficient orders in hand. It has the largest market share in the world for products such as electronic expansion valves for vehicles and integrated thermal management components for new energy vehicles, and has established overseas production bases in the United States, Mexico, Poland, Vietnam, etc. At the same time, the company continues to advance the evolution of products from components to integration. Driven by the continuous growth of the industry and the expansion of the company's categories, the company's automotive thermal management business is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
With the same core technology and high-quality customer resources, the humanoid robot business opens up space for future growth Humanoid robots are one of the important future development directions, and the trend of machine replacement is obvious. According to PrecedenceResearch, the global market for humanoid robots is expected to reach US$28.66 billion in 2032, with a compound growth rate of 33.28% in 2022 to 2032. As a key component, the actuator market space is expected to reach 100 billion under the assumption that humanoid robots will produce 1 million units per year. Robotic mechatronic actuators and motor control technology are the same as the company's existing business valves and pump products in terms of motor and control technology. Relying on deep technology accumulation and high-quality customer resources, the company has an obvious first-mover advantage, and the robot actuator business is expected to become a new growth point for the company in the future.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 261.1, 318.4 billion yuan, and 38.51 billion yuan respectively, with revenue growth rates of 22.3%, 21.9%, and 20.9% respectively, net profit to mother of 31.5, 38.5, and 4.68 billion yuan respectively, and net profit growth rates to mother of 22.6%, 22.2%, and 21.5%, respectively, corresponding to 2023-2025 PE, respectively. Considering the company's global leading position in the field of global refrigeration appliances and automotive thermal management, and the company's development potential in the field of humanoid robots, it was given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
New energy vehicle sales fall short of expectations, risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, and increased risk of industry competition