Incidents:
On March 8, 2024, the company released the February production and sales report. In February, the company achieved wholesale sales of 207,800 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 31% and a month-on-month decrease of 15%. The decline was mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday.
Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, sales volume in February was under pressure in the short term
The company's wholesale automobile sales volume in February was 207,800 units, down 31% year on year and 15% month on month. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, February sales were under short-term pressure. In terms of retail sales, the company achieved 736,000 vehicle sales in January-January, an increase of 11% over the previous year, maintaining the lead in the industry. By brand, with the exception of SAIC-GM-Wuling, Zhiji Auto, and MG India, sales of all other brands declined year-on-year in February. The wholesale sales volume of Shangtong 5, Zhiji Auto and MG India in February was 7.5/0.2/0.5 million vehicles, respectively, up 4%/60%/12% year on year, respectively. The sales performance was relatively good.
New energy continues to grow at a high rate, and Zhiji has completed a new round of financing
In February, the company's wholesale sales volume of NEVs was 61,000 units, up 37% year on year. The cumulative wholesale sales volume in January-January was 125,000 units, up 63% year on year, and NEV sales remained high. At present, the new energy transformation of the company's brands has begun to bear fruit. Among them, the Zhiji LS6 has been the number one “medium and large pure electric SUV” in April; Shangtong delivered 76,000 new energy vehicles in May to January, up 50% year on year; SAIC Volkswagen delivered more than 16,000 new energy vehicles in January-January, up 123% year on year; SAIC-GM delivered more than 10,000 new energy vehicles in January-January, up 121% year on year. On March 1, Zhiji Auto completed Series B financing of 8 billion yuan to reserve funds for subsequent advanced smart driving, smart cabin and intelligent control technology to help SAIC Motor achieve better transformation.
SAIC MG's sales volume in Europe is impressive. The multi-brand overseas launch process began. In February, the company's export sales volume was 57,000 vehicles, a decrease of 32% from the previous year. The cumulative export sales volume in January-February was 121,000 units, down 24% year on year. It was mainly affected by tight capacity due to the Red Sea situation. In January, the company's Anji Shencheng officially joined its own fleet. The fleet size was expanded to 31 ships. In the next 3 years, 13 search carriers will also join the self-operated fleet, laying the foundation for expanding the scale of going out to sea. In terms of sales, MG continued to deliver more than 20,000 vehicles per month in the European market in February. At the Geneva Motor Show held in February, the company unveiled 10 smart electric vehicles, including the Zhiji L6 and MG3 HEV, and the export product matrix is expected to be further enriched.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-25 to be 7420/7910/844.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%/6.6%/6.7%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 156/173/181 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.3%/11.2%/4.6%, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 11.1/10/9.6X, and corresponding EPS of 1.35/1.5/1.6 yuan/share, respectively. As the company's products accelerate the transformation of new energy sources and continue to strengthen the brand's overseas expansion, it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Risk warning: Risk of declining terminal demand; risk of sales of new energy models falling short of expectations; risk of overseas sales falling short of expectations.