Introduction to this report:
Under the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, the year-on-year increase in net interest income drives the company's performance growth; it is expected that the company will rely on global transaction settlement advantages to help seize opportunities for growing demand for overseas financial services and achieve growth exceeding expectations.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “gain” rating and maintain the target price to 15.33 yuan, corresponding to 21.84xPe and 2.62xPb in 2024. The company's 2023 revenue/net profit to mother was 62.47/ 402 million yuan, -8.45%/63.32% year over year; the weighted average ROE was +3.71 pct year on year to 11.46%, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. Based on the latest business development environment, the profit forecast was lowered to EPS of 0.70/0.79/ 0.88 yuan for 24-26 (0.90/1.08/- yuan before adjustment); considering the company's significant advantages in global transaction clearing, it helps seize growth opportunities in overseas financial services for Chinese enterprises, and maintains a target price of 15.33 yuan, corresponding to 21.84xPe and 2.62xPb in 2024, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Under the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, the year-on-year increase in net interest income drove a sharp increase in the company's adjusted revenue, and the growth in the futures brokerage business further boosted performance. 1) The company's net interest income in 2023 was +67.02% year-on-year to $545 million, contributing 66.41% of the adjusted revenue (operating income - other business expenses) increase. The main reason is that interest rates obtained from interest-bearing assets such as futures margin deposits brought about by the company's overseas business increased dramatically under the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle. 2) The amount of domestic futures transactions increased year-on-year, and the company actively carried out overseas market outlets and business layout, making the company's brokerage business 18.73% year-on-year to 503 million yuan, accounting for 24.09% of the adjusted revenue increase, further driving performance growth.
It is expected that the company will focus on expanding the scale of overseas clearing business, and rely on the advantages of global transaction settlement to seize opportunities for growing demand for overseas financial services and achieve growth exceeding expectations. 1) Demand for overseas financial services such as risk management by Chinese enterprises is rising, and domestic futures companies are more likely to be used; 2) The company has a large number of transaction clearing licenses on major overseas exchanges, has significant advantages in global transaction settlement capabilities, and is focused on expanding the scale of overseas clearing business, which is expected to better grasp the opportunities of customer demand growth and achieve a growth in performance exceeding expectations.
Catalyst: The process of domestic enterprises “going global” is accelerating.
Risk warning: Interest rates in overseas markets have dropped sharply.