Nanhua Futures (603093): Performance is in line with expectations Overseas business α+ industry expansion and beta drives future growth

事件：南华期货发布2023 年报，分别实现营业收入和归母净利润62.47、4.02亿元，同比分别-8.45%、+63.32%；其中，单四季度分别实现营业收入和归母净利润13.98、1.03 亿元，同比分别-13.30%、-9.38%。

利息净收入大幅增长是公司业绩高增主要来源。2023 年公司手续费净收入、利息净收入、其他业务收入（净额法）、投资类收益分别为6.12、5.45、0.68、0.52 亿元，同比分别+22.8%、+67.0%、+134.3%、-45.2%，占净额法营业收入的比重分别为47.9%、42.7%、5.3%、4.1%，同比分别-4.63、+8.26、+2.25、-5.93pct，利息净收入是公司业绩高增的核心驱动力。

境外客户权益增长+美国联邦基金利率高企推动利息净收入高增：1）从收入结构来看，境外业务是公司利息净收入的核心构成。以母公司报表利息净收入衡量境内部分，以合并报表口径利息净收入减掉母公司口径利息净收入衡量境外部分，2023 年境内、境外利息净收入分别为1.51、3.94 亿元，同比分别-24.5%、+211.6%，占公司利息净收入的比重分别为27.7%、72.3%；2）从收入驱动力来看，境外客户权益增长叠加美联储加息是境外利息净收入大幅增长的核心原因，公司全面的境外布局吸引境外客户权益保持增长，2023 年美国联邦基金利率维持高位对公司境外利息净收入形成有力支撑。

境内业务稳步发展，多板块布局成效渐显：1）手续费方面，2023 年境内手续费收入同比+21.0%至4.83 亿元，预计主要系期货经纪与财富管理业务驱动，截至2023 年末公司公募管理规模、资管规模同比分别+38.65%、+75.27%至211.11、12.83 亿元；2）利息净收入方面，母公司利息净收入同比-24.5%至1.51 亿元，预计主要系利率水平下滑及负债成本上升，截至2023 年末公司境内期货经纪业务客户权益同比+11.32%至212.48 亿元；3）风险管理业务整体发展较快，2023 年场外衍生品业务新增名义本金同比+10.27%至791.14 亿元，做市业务成交额同比+17.43%至9,274.19 亿元。

投资建议：看好公司凭借全球化清算体系在境外业务中的α与境内期货市场扩容带来的行业β。境外业务方面，中资企业套保资金回流叠加公司独特的清算优势有望推动客户权益持续增长；境内业务方面，新业务放开+产业客户加速入市+新品种加速推出有望驱动行业规模持续扩容。预计公司2024-2026 年分别实现归母净利润5.09、5.83、6.58 亿元，同比分别+26.6%、+14.5%、+12.9%，对应3 月8 日收盘价的PE 分别为12.80、11.18、9.90 倍，维持“增持”评级。

风险提示：期货代理成交规模大幅萎缩；经纪业务费率大幅下滑；风险管理业务出现市场、信用和流动性风险；境外业务经营波动

Incident: Nanhua Futures released its 2023 annual report, achieving operating income and net profit of 62.47 billion yuan and 402 million yuan, respectively, of -8.45% and +63.32% year-on-year respectively. Among them, it achieved operating income and net profit of 13.98 million yuan and 103 million yuan respectively in the fourth quarter, respectively, of -13.30% and -9.38% year-on-year respectively.

The sharp increase in net interest income is the main source of the company's high performance growth. In 2023, the company's net fee revenue, net interest income, other business income (net method), and investment income were 6.12, 5.45, 0.68, and 0.52 billion yuan, respectively, +22.8%, +67.0%, +134.3%, and -45.2% year-on-year, accounting for 47.9%, 42.7%, 5.3%, and 4.1% of net revenue, respectively. Net interest income was the core driver of the company's high performance increase.

Growth in the equity of overseas customers+high US federal funds interest rates drive a high increase in net interest income: 1) Judging from the revenue structure, overseas business is the core component of the company's net interest income. The domestic share is measured by net interest income from the parent company's statement, and the overseas share is measured by subtracting the net income from interest on the consolidated statement. Net domestic and overseas interest income in 2023 was 1.51 billion yuan and 394 million yuan, respectively, -24.5% and +211.6% year-on-year, accounting for 27.7% and 72.3% of the company's net interest income, respectively; 2) Judging from revenue drivers, the increase in overseas customer equity and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is the core reason for the sharp increase in net interest income from overseas customers. Growth, and the continued high level of US federal funds interest rates in 2023 provided strong support for the company's net income from foreign interest.

Domestic business is developing steadily, and the results of the multi-sector layout are gradually showing: 1) In terms of fees, domestic fee revenue was +21.0% to 483 million yuan in 2023, which is expected to be mainly driven by futures brokerage and wealth management businesses. By the end of 2023, the company's public equity management scale and asset management scale were +38.65%, +75.27% to 211.11 and 1,283 billion yuan, respectively; 2) In terms of net interest income, the parent company's net interest income is -24.5% to 151 million yuan, which is expected to be mainly due to falling interest rates and rising debt costs. At the end of 2023, the company's domestic futures brokerage business customer equity ratio was +11.32% to RMB 21.248 billion; 3) The overall risk management business developed rapidly. In 2023, the OTC derivatives business added +10.27% of nominal principal to RMB 79.114 billion, and the market making business turnover was +17.43% YoY to RMB 927.419 billion.

Investment advice: Optimistic about the company's alpha in overseas business through a global clearing system and industry beta brought about by the expansion of the domestic futures market. In terms of overseas business, the return of hedging capital from Chinese enterprises combined with the company's unique clearing advantages is expected to drive continued growth in customer rights; in terms of domestic business, the liberalization of new businesses+accelerated market entry of industrial customers+accelerated introduction of new products are expected to drive the continuous expansion of the scale of the industry. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 509 million yuan, 5.83 million yuan and 658 million yuan respectively in 2024-2026, +26.6%, +14.5%, and +12.9%, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on March 8 is 12.80, 11.18, and 9.90 times, respectively, maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: the transaction scale of futures agents has shrunk sharply; brokerage rates have fallen sharply; risk management business has experienced market, credit and liquidity risks; fluctuations in overseas business operations

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南华期货(603093)：业绩符合预期 境外业务Α+行业扩容Β驱动未来增长

Nanhua Futures (603093): Performance is in line with expectations Overseas business α+ industry expansion and beta drives future growth

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南华期货(603093)：业绩符合预期境外业务Α+行业扩容Β驱动未来增长