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大行评级|杰富瑞:资本管理仍是三大中资电讯股关键催化剂 首选中国移动

Bank Ratings | Jefferies: Capital management is still the key catalyst for the top three Chinese telecom stocks, China Mobile is the first choice

Gelonghui Finance ·  Mar 11 11:28
Glonghui, March 11 | Jefferies indicates that the market is concerned about the dividend and share repurchase policies to be announced by the three major Chinese telecommunications companies, and believes that the three major telecommunications stocks are all “low price growth stocks” because they all have less than double the price-earnings growth rate (PEG) and attractive dividend yield. The order of preferences remains the same: China Mobile is preferred, followed by China Telecom and China Unicom. Jefferies expects the three companies' dividend payout rates to increase further in 2024, and earnings per share are expected to increase in 2024, thereby increasing the dividend per share and dividend yield. Among them, China Mobile restarted its share repurchase program on January 15 and has repurchased 2.4 million shares. The estimated average price is HK$65 per share, totaling about HK$155 million. Jefferies believes that the State Assets Administration Commission encourages central enterprises to repurchase shares and includes market value as performance evaluation indicators for senior management. China Mobile has set a good example, and it is expected that China Telecom and China Unicom will also consider stock repurchases. As the peak of 5G and broadband construction in China passes, capital expenditure is expected to decline. Jefferies predicts that the combined capital expenditure of the three major telecommunications companies will drop 7% year-on-year in 2024, and the ratio of total capital expenditure to sales will drop from about 21% in 2023 to about 19% in 2024. A lower capital expenditure to sales ratio means better free cash flow, which increases the ability to return capital to shareholders.

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