Winona 2.0 era begins, looking forward to new changes
In 2024, Winona is expected to enter a new era of 2.0 skin health: further deepening basic research and further expansion of efficacy research, from soothing and repair to advanced sensitive skin PLUS to create soothing series/barrier series/whitening series/sunscreen series/anti-aging series/medical device solutions for sensitive skin such as dry itchiness, red, barrier damage, pigmentation, skin aging, sun loss, etc. The star product, Sumint Cream 2.0, was first introduced, and the ingredient/technology/texture/packaging was upgraded, making it one of the main products in the 38 sessions; the sunscreen series focuses on sun damage; time repair and sunscreen have already been introduced; more new 2.0 products are expected to continue to gain strength. The company has been working overseas for 23 years and is looking forward to results in 24 years. 23Q1-Q3 revenue growth accelerated quarterly, and Yoy's revenue growth is expected to slow in 23Q4 due to the general environment. Considering the company's new product climbing pace, adjust the 23-25 EPS to 2.25/2.95/3.94 yuan (previous value 3.21/4.11/5.15 yuan), which is 26 times that of the company's 24-year PE. Due to the high adhesive barrier on sensitive skin tracks, 30 times PE is given for 24 years, and the target price is 88.50 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Winona: From 1.0 special care products to 2.0 sensitive skin plus, to the core brand of skin health and free beauty, Winona has spent 13 years since its establishment in 2010. Starting from solving clinical problems, combining industry, education, research and medicine, it has successfully created star products such as soothing and moisturizing special creams, and has become a specialist in the field of sensitive skin care. According to the Winona Brand 2.0 Strategy Upgrade Conference, Bethany 2.0's goal is to build a Chinese skin health ecosystem, using Winona as an anchor in the next 10 years to open a new era of healthy and free beauty for sensitive skin, that is, “small incisions, deep research, and true use” — from segmented fields, from one point to multiple points, phased modeling, radiation to sunscreen, anti-aging, etc., to provide refined solutions for sensitive skin.
Special Cream 2.0 takes the lead, lays the starting point for change
Special Cream 2.0 quadruple upgrade: mechanically, it focuses on the sensitive gene CLDN5 to reduce the recurrent occurrence of skin sensitivity; upgraded to green acerola polysaccharide; technologically applied sediment technology; and upgraded texture and packaging. In terms of pricing, it still remains at 268 yuan/50g. The Winona 2.0 era will continue to be based on dermatology to expand medical research genes and build integrated solutions, including the drug hyaluronic acid and recombinant collagen series that focus on post-medical and aesthetic treatments, the second-generation Winona cream series that specializes in sensitive dry itchiness, a barrier cream series that specializes in barrier damage, Whitening Bottle 2.0, which specializes in pigmentation, and a sunscreen series that focuses on sun damage. In 2024, Winona will also launch a new anti-aging product with anti-aging benefits.
Looking forward to an improvement in online sales data
Revenue for Q1-Q3 in '23 was 8.63/15.04/1,064 billion yuan, respectively, and YOY was 6.78%/21.21%/25.77%, respectively, and growth gradually accelerated. The GMV of the 23Q4 e-commerce platform was 1,562 million yuan/yoy -8%, and the Douyin platform's GMV was 521 million yuan/yoy 161%. Overall, there was a recovery compared to Q3, but among them, the Douyin platform's YoY fell to 159% in December (183% in November). In January '24, the GMV of the Aosha platform was 124 million yuan/yoy 98%, yoy increased by 46 pcts month-on-month, and the GMV of the Douyin platform was 54 million yuan/yoy 118%, and the growth rate declined further. We look forward to the further development of the e-commerce platform in the new quarter to help improve online sales performance.
Risk warning: New product launches fall short of expectations/increased market competition/executive changes and loss/shareholder holdings reduction, etc.