Affected by the shutdown of slaughter companies during the Spring Festival and the decline in consumer demand after the holiday season, the overall release of pig companies slowed down in February.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that on March 11, Everbright Securities released comments on the January-February pig company sales monthly report. Everbright Securities said that due to the shutdown of slaughter companies during the Spring Festival and the fall in consumer demand after the holiday season, the overall listing of pig companies slowed down in February. Furthermore, according to Boya Hexun, the price of pigs was 14.31 yuan/kg on March 8, up 1.63% from week to month, and the price of 15 kg piglets was 31.41 yuan/kg, down -0.63% from week to week. According to Yongyi Consulting, the average weight released this week was 122.77 kg, up 0.86% from March 1. The storage rate of frozen products in slaughterhouses was 15.77%, up 1.81 pcts from week to week. At the beginning of the month, pig prices continued to be flat, and the average price of pigs in the country was close to 14.5 yuan/kg. However, the current demand season is still low, supply is being released at a high level, and the upward momentum for pig prices is limited.
Release volume: The holiday effect suppressed the number of releases, and the number of fat pigs increased and the number of piglets decreased compared to the same period
Looking at the merger: 1) In terms of total sales volume in January and February, the 11 companies that have already announced their listing status listed a total of 22.1347 million pigs, an increase of 17.5% over the previous year. Among the leading groups, Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), Wen's (300498.SZ), and New Hope (000876.SZ) commercial pig listings increased 19.18%, 29.44%, and 0.32% year-on-year respectively. Among other large-scale companies, Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) and Shennong Group (605296.SH) performed well, with year-on-year increases of over 40%.
2) In terms of commercial pigs, the 10 large-scale pig companies listed according to known data increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, and the effect of large-scale enterprises expanding production was obvious. Specifically, commercial pig sales of companies such as New Hope, Dongrui Co., Ltd. (001201.SZ), and Dabeinong (002385.SZ) remained stable as a whole. The rest of the companies showed an increase of 10%-30%. Among them, Tianbang Foods increased by 171.18% over the same period last year.
3) In terms of piglets, the sales volume of the nine listed companies in January-February fell by 12.05% year-on-year. Specifically, New Hope, Tang Renshen (002567.SZ), and Shennong Group showed significant growth, at 39.4%, 75.74%, and 182.35% respectively. The rest of the companies reduced the number of piglets released at the beginning of the year.
List price: Slightly rebounded in February, exceeding supply and falling year-on-year
Affected by demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, national pig prices continued to rise from mid-late January to early February, and fell rapidly after the holiday season. However, the Lantern Festival and pre-school stocking played a certain supporting role in pig prices at the end of the month, so overall pig prices rose slightly in February. On a year-on-year basis, the average price of commercial pigs sold by 11 listed pig companies in January-February is now declining. Among them, Tang Renshen is basically flat compared to the same period last year. The main reason is that there was an obvious oversupply of pigs in early '24. Referring to Yongyi Consulting data, the slaughter volume of sample companies from January to February '24 increased 5.31% year on year, and the peak consumption season before the Spring Festival did not fully absorb the high supply.
Average entry weight: month-on-month recovery, year-on-year decline
The average weight of commercial pigs sold by the 10 listed companies in February rose to 115.51 kg/head, an increase of about 4 kg/head over January. Judging from the absolute amount, according to estimates by Everbright Securities, the average weight of commercial pigs sold by Shennong Group, Wenshi Shares, and Tiankang Biotech is currently higher than 120 kg/head, and the average weight of the rest of the companies has basically returned to the normal range of around 110 kg/head. On a year-on-year basis, the average weight of the nine listed companies that have announced sales fell 3.58% year on year in January-February.
Risk analysis: livestock and poultry prices fall short of expectations; large-scale outbreaks of livestock and poultry diseases; prices of raw materials fluctuate greatly.