Monday March 11th

Keywords: the US New York Federal Reserve's 1-year inflation forecast, China's February financial data, Japan's revised real GDP for the fourth quarter; Oracle financial report

On Monday, in terms of economic data, important data such as the US New York Federal Reserve's 1-year inflation forecast for February, China's February financial data, and Japan's revised real GDP for the fourth quarter will be released.

Financial data for January welcomed a “good start”. Social finance added 506.1 billion yuan, and the growth rate remained the same as before; credit increased 4.92 trillion yuan, up 10.4% year on year, and both short-term and medium- to long-term loans for residents increased year-on-year. Affected by Spring Festival misalignment and use of financial funds, MI growth increased sharply, and the scissor gap in M1-M2 growth came to a sharp end. Institutional analysts believe that under the influence of Spring Festival factors, the growth rates of credit, social finance, and M1 are likely to decline in February. After phased interpretation, future sustainability will still depend on the effects of demand-side policies.

In terms of financial reporting, software giants$Oracle (ORCL.US)$The latest financial report will be released after the market on Monday.

Analysts expect Oracle's upcoming quarterly earnings of $0.96 per share, which is 40.76% higher than $0.68 in the same period last year. Oracle expects revenue of $13.29 billion, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year.

In terms of financial events, Biden will submit a 2025 budget proposal to Congress on Monday, which is worth investors' attention.

Tuesday March 12th

Keywords: US February CPI, Core CPI; US February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

On Tuesday, the market will welcome the much-watched US CPI data for February. These data may reveal whether inflationary pressure is rising again, which will affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction and test the US stock market's astonishing rise in 2024.

The two major US inflation figures, CPI and PPI, both exceeded expectations. Service inflation was rekindled, and the “tough statements” of the Federal Reserve officials also made the market begin to continuously adjust interest rate expectations; if this data continues to be strong, it may affect investors' expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Currently, the market generally believes that the US CPI for February, which will be announced next Tuesday, “should ease people's concerns that inflation will accelerate again.” They expect core inflation to fall from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year.

In addition, data such as the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for February, the UK unemployment rate, and Germany's CPI for February will also be revealed.

Wednesday March 13th

Keywords: US 10-year treasury bond auction, US weekly EIA crude oil inventory, Eurozone monthly industrial output rate in January

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, data such as the results of the US 10-year treasury bond auction, US EIA crude oil inventories for the week, and the monthly rate of industrial output in the Eurozone will be announced.

Furthermore, on March 13 and March 15, Japan will hold nationwide labor negotiations, which may become the key data to determine the Bank of Japan's shift.

“Chunto” is Japan holding nationwide labor negotiations every spring, and it acts as a “weather vane” guide for wage increases in Japan throughout the year. On March 7, Rengo announced an average wage increase of 5.9% for trade unions, which is significantly higher than 4.5% last year, the highest level in 30 years. However, the incident announced by Chun Dou is only 2 trading days away from the Bank of Japan's March interest rate meeting, and may have become an important variable affecting this meeting.

Thursday March 14th

Keywords: monthly retail sales rate in the US in February, PPI in February, number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week; Adobe, Futu Holdings Ltd., Shell financial reports

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the monthly rate of US retail sales, known as “horror data,” will be the focus. In addition, major data such as the number of US jobless claims at the beginning of the week and the US PPI for February also attracted market attention.

Retail sales data will help the market understand the health of American consumers. Retail sales in the US fell 0.8% month-on-month in January. The decline was the biggest in nearly a year, falling far short of expectations. Currently, the market generally expects that retail sales in the US will increase slightly by 0.3% month-on-month in February. If the data slows down again beyond expectations, it may strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June.

In terms of financial reporting, well-known image software manufacturers$Adobe (ADBE.US)$，$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$,$AIA (01299.HK)$Key companies will be listed later.

Analysts generally expect Adobe's revenue for the 2024 Q1 quarter to reach US$5.145 billion, up 10.53% year on year, and earnings per share of US$3.37, up 24.53% year on year. Furthermore, according to public data, Wall Street analysts gave Adobe a consistent rating of moderate purchases. The average target price was $653.43, an increase of about 18% from the closing price on March 8.

Friday March 15

Keywords: US March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, 1-year inflation rate forecast, China 70 city housing price index; Meitu Corporation, Wuxin Technology financial report

On Friday, in terms of economic data, data such as the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for March, the one-year inflation rate forecast, the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, and the monthly rate of US industrial output for February will be revealed one after another.

Previously, the US manufacturing industry declined further in February and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index weakened, strengthening market expectations for interest rate cuts in June. According to the data, the US consumer confidence index declined for the first time in three months, from 79 in January to 76.9 due to worsening current and anticipated views on the economy.

In terms of financial reports, in the Hong Kong stock market$MEITU (01357.HK)$, the US stock market's$RLX Technology (RLX.US)$Other important company financial reports will be released.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

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