维持增持评级。考虑欧洲分布式去库影响及国内大储竞争激烈，下调23-24 年EPS 为0.78（-0.14）元、1.54（-0.02）元，新增25 年EPS 为2.30 元，参考可比公司估值，给予24 年24 倍PE，对应目标价36.86（-21.72）元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company has been active in the US Big Storage PCS market for 24 years, and is expected to contribute to greater profit flexibility in 25 years. Demand for power plants in India, the Middle East, and Europe is booming, and the explosion of company orders is worth looking forward to.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the impact of distributed storage in Europe and intense competition for large domestic reserves, EPS was lowered to 0.78 (-0.14) yuan and 1.54 (-0.02) yuan, and the 25-year EPS was added by 2.30 yuan. Referring to comparable company estimates, 24 times PE was given in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 36.86 (-21.72) yuan, to maintain the increase rating.
The company has been active in the US Big Storage PCS market for 24 years, and is expected to contribute to greater profit flexibility in 25 years. 1) The US market is large: The US power grid equipment is old, and the grid is relatively independent and difficult to schedule on a large scale. Coupled with the problem of connecting new energy to the grid, large storage demand has become immediate demand. According to Infolink, the US accounts for 25% of global energy storage demand, of which 21 GWh of energy storage has been installed in 23 years, which is expected to grow to 48 GWh in 25 years, with a compound growth rate of 52%. 2) Good pattern: In 2022, Tesla, Fluence, and Sunshine Power accounted for the top three major storage system market shares in the US, with 25%, 22%, and 13% respectively, for a total of 60%. Only Sunshine Power ranked first in the US storage system market. Looking at PCS alone, the pattern is also very good, with PE accounting for 39%, followed by Sunshine (15%), Solaredge (14%), and Tesla (11%). 3) High profit per unit in the US: The unit price of PCS is expected to be 4-5 cents per watt, with a gross profit margin of 40% +. 4) Opportunities for Shangneng: Sunshine is integrated, and has competitive relationships with local integrators in the US and integrators overseas. PE products are slow to iterate and have poor stability. As a PCS leader in China, Shangneng is highly competitive in the US market. The company passed the North American certification for 200kw serial PCS in December '22, established a subsidiary in the US in January '23, and the 2MW centralized PCS was certified for the North American market in October '23. We believe that the company is expected to enter a harvest period in the US market in 24 years, contribute more profit flexibility to the company in 25, and have the opportunity to reach the top three in the US PCS in the future.
Demand for power plants in India, the Middle East, and Europe is booming, and the explosion of company orders is worth looking forward to. 1) The Indian market has great demand potential, and the company has built factories locally and has a high share. 2) Demand from the Middle East continues to explode, the company is full of orders, and performance delivery is worth looking forward to. 3) The European power plant boom is also improving.
Catalysts: US business continues to advance; demand from the Middle East, India, and Europe explodes.
Risk warning: US political policy risks; market competition intensifies.
