二倍体狂苗销售收入、批签发量增长迅速，市场前景广阔2014 年，公司人二倍体狂犬疫苗成功实现上市销售，2018-2022 年其批签发量与销售量快速增加，作为核心产品带动公司业绩持续增长。2018-2022年，二倍体狂苗产品营收从2018 年的5.51 亿元增长至2022 年的14.25 亿元，销售增长迅速。Report summary
Kanghua Biotech is a comprehensive vaccine enterprise focusing on the field of biomedicine and focusing on research and development. Currently, the main products sold include freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) and ACYW135 meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine. Among them, freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) is the company's main source of revenue, accounting for more than 95% of revenue in 2018-2022; the norovirus vaccine independently developed by the company was successfully authorized overseas in January 2024, making it an excellent domestic vaccine pipeline overseas company.
Key points of investment
Sales revenue and batch issuance volume of diploid vaccine have grown rapidly, and the market prospects are broad. In 2014, the company's diploid rabies vaccine was successfully marketed and sold. In 2018-2022, its batch issuance volume and sales volume increased rapidly, driving the company's performance to continue to grow as a core product. In 2018-2022, the revenue of diploid products increased from 551 million yuan in 2018 to 1,425 million yuan in 2022, and sales grew rapidly.
The layout of pet vaccines is expected to create a second growth curve
The size of the pet consumer market is rising steadily. The size of the urban pet (dog and cat) consumer market in 2023 was 279.3 billion yuan, up 3.2% from 2022. Among them, the size of the dog consumer market increased slightly by 0.9% compared to 2022, while the size of the cat market continued to grow steadily, up 6% from 2022. Pet care and prevention are an important part of pet consumption. Hillis is the pet rabies vaccine product represented by the company. 2022 was the company's first complete sales year for Hillis products, and the company's veterinary vaccine sales revenue in 2022 reached 3.8426 million yuan.
The recombinant hexavalent norovirus vaccine pipeline successfully went overseas
The company authorized HillEvax to develop, manufacture and commercialize the recombinant hexavalent norovirus vaccine and its derivatives overseas, and is expected to receive a total price of up to US$270.5 million and a single-digit royalty rate of actual annual net sales. Currently, no norovirus vaccine has been marketed globally, and the clinical progress of the company's norovirus vaccine pipeline is ahead.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company's total revenue for 2023-2025 to be 1,539/18.98/2,293 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 6.35%/23.34%/20.82% respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 597/728/886 million yuan, respectively, and EPS of 4.44/5.41/6.58 yuan, respectively. Considering that the company is a leading company in human diploidy vaccines, the company's core vaccine products continue to be released, and the norovirus vaccine pipeline has successfully gone overseas. We are optimistic about the company's future development. We are optimistic about the company's future development. We will give 2024 PE 22 times, a target price of 119.02 yuan/share, covering the first time, and giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The risk of relatively poor product structure, risk of changes in industry policies, product development risk, risk of adverse reaction cases, and estimates are subjective risks.
