Incident: The company released the “Double Improvement of Quality and Return” action plan, explaining various measures such as R&D investment and internationalization strategies, operation management, information disclosure, and stabilizing investment confidence, demonstrating the company's confidence in long-term development.
Continued cash dividends pay back to investors, and the increase in executive holdings shows confidence. Since its listing in February 2017, the company has accumulated cash dividends of more than 1.5 billion yuan, accounting for 43.00% of the total net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies. At the same time, the company repurchased more than 120 million yuan of shares from September 2022 to March 2023, and used all of them to cancel and reduce registered capital. Through the repurchase and cancellation of the company's shares, the company increased investor returns. The company's directors and senior management are optimistic about the company's long-term investment value. At the same time, in order to enhance investor confidence, they increased their holdings by 504.967 million yuan from October 2022 to January 2023.
The R&D pipeline is rich in reserves, and overseas expansion opens up a second growth curve. The company's revenue increased from 552 million yuan (2016) to 3.157 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 33.73%; from the company's listing to the first half of 2023, the company's total R&D investment accounted for 17.57% of total cumulative revenue. Looking at the R&D pipeline, the company continues to focus on the vaccine industry. It has more than 80 patents, 11 products that have been marketed and approved for emergency use, and more than 30 varieties under development, which basically cover the world's major vaccine varieties. Looking at the international strategy, since 2022, the company has successively signed cooperation agreements with partners in more than 10 countries, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Bahrain, covering vaccine varieties such as 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine. In May 2023, the company reached cooperation with Saudi pharmaceutical importers and leading Indian pharmaceutical companies; in October 2023, the company's 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine obtained a marketing license in Indonesia, which is expected to contribute new growth points to the company's performance in the future. At present, the company has formed a diversified and innovative product pipeline layout with industry competitiveness. In the future, as the products being developed by the company are approved and listed one after another, it will provide an important guarantee for the company's continuous development and further enhance the company's competitive strength.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The COVID-19 vaccine has basically cleared up, and the company has begun to release profits. The subsequent focus is on 13-valent pneumonia and the release pace after the launch of the third-generation rabies. According to the company's 23-year performance forecast, we expect the 23-25 results to be 8.9/11.4/1.38 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current PE of 29/23/19 times, respectively, to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of increased competition in the market; the risk of product sales falling short of expectations; risk of policies exceeding expectations.