Guide reading

Sino-US trade frictions are on and off, but the situation continues to escalate on the whole. The scale of goods levied by the US side on China is constantly expanding, and the tax rate is constantly rising, and it has gone beyond the field of trade and upgraded to all-round games such as science and technology war, financial war, geopolitical war, public opinion war and so on.

This paper comprehensively shows the strategic containment initiated by the United States against China from various fields, and deduces the final outcome of the game between China and the United States in combination with history and international experience.

Core viewpoints

First, the six arenas of the game between China and the United States: trade, finance, science and technology, geography, rules, and public opinion.

Trade war: in the field of economy and trade, the scale of tariffs imposed by the United States on China continues to expand, and the tax rate continues to rise, and the signing of the US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement sets the "poison pill clause" against China.

The United States imposed tariffs of 2500 and 300 billion US dollars on Chinese goods, respectively, basically achieving full coverage of US imports from China. The imposition of US tariffs on China has led to a sharp decline in the growth rate of China's exports and exports to the United States (both sides of the trade war have been hurt, the US export sector has also been hit hard, and residents pay for high-priced imports). China's exports grew by 0.4% from January to August, with a high probability of negative growth for the whole year; of which, China's exports to the United States grew by-8.9%, down 20.2 percentage points from 2018. Affect the employment of the export sector, household consumption and business expectations, and accelerate the transfer of orders and industrial chain. The structure of China's trading partner has changed, and the United States has retreated to become China's third largest trading partner, after the European Union and ASEAN.

Financial war: in the financial field, the United States launched an investigation into Chinese banks, and forcibly identified China as an "exchange rate manipulator" on the premise that the RMB was devalued and China did not meet the US criteria for "exchange rate manipulators". The United States may suppress China in attacking the financial system, imposing sanctions on financial subjects and attacking financial instruments (assets), including nine major means.

In June, a US court ruled that three large Chinese banks were in contempt of court, and in August, the US Treasury identified China as a "currency manipulator" in an attempt to raise the stakes and provide the basis for creating more policy tools to sanction China.

Science and technology war: in the field of science and technology, the United States has adopted six major measures to contain the development of China's high-tech industry, banning the sale and suppressing Huawei shows its intention to contain China's high-tech industry.

The United States has restricted high-tech exports to China for a long time, and the high-tech trade deficit with China accounts for 1/3 of the total trade deficit with China. Since 2018, the United States has adopted six major measures to crack down on China's high-tech: restricting the export of high-tech products, restricting investment, blocking the market, cutting off the supply chain, amending the law to abolish intellectual property protection to China, and interfering with normal academic exchanges and scientific research cooperation. Chinese high-tech enterprises represented by Huawei try to exclude China from the US scientific and technological innovation system and "decouple science and technology".

Geopolitical War: in the field of geopolitics, the United States has carried out three levels of crackdown on China:

1) meddling in the affairs of Hong Kong and Taiwan in China to challenge sovereignty and territorial integrity

2) sanction countries that are relatively friendly to China and indirectly challenge China's overseas economic and political interests

3) weaken and stigmatize China's international status and influence.

First, it directly challenges China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The National Democracy Foundation (NED) is an important institution for the United States to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries by making use of its international status and strength. NED's official website shows that since 1997, NED has funded about $4.95 million in anti-China organizations in Hong Kong to cultivate opposition and radical "democratic" figures. In 2018, NED provided a total of US $669000 to three separatist organizations related to Xinjiang to support separatist activities. In fact, since a large number of such funding will not be made through public channels, the actual amount of support in the United States will be significantly higher than the disclosed amount.Us Vice President Pence said that the progress of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations should be linked to the Hong Kong issue.On the Taiwan issue of China, the United States obstructed the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait through political, military and other means, and the United States passed it in March 2018.Taiwan Travel LawIt stipulates that US policy should allow US officials at all levels to visit Taiwan and allow senior Taiwanese officials to come to the United States under "respectable conditions." In recent years, we have passed the "2018 Taiwan National Defense Assessment Commission Act,"2018 Asia Reassurance Initiative Act,"2019 Fiscal year National Defense Authorization Act,"2020 Fiscal year National Defense Authorization Act," and other bills to support arms sales to Taiwan, and to allow US ships to continue to pass through the Taiwan Strait.

The second is to impose sanctions on countries that are relatively friendly to China and have strategic interests, such as Venezuela and Iran.

Venezuela is an important destination for China's trade cooperation and direct investment.From 1998 to 2012, the proportion of China's total foreign trade to Venezuela in Latin America rose from 2% to 9%.Venezuela's crude oil exports to China account for 5% of China's total crude oil importsIn 2012, China's direct investment in Venezuela reached US $2.65 billion, accounting for 32% of China's direct investment in Latin America that year; the stock reached US $3.2 billion by the end of 2017. As the governments of Chavez and Maduro are relatively friendly to China, the United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela and supported the opposition government to have a direct impact on China's economic and political interests. As of 2017, China's stock of foreign direct investment in Iran has reached US $3.62 billion, second only to US $5.37 billion in the United Arab Emirates and US $4.14 billion in Israel in West Asia.Iran's oil exports to China account for about 8% of Petrochina imports.The Iraqi government is relatively friendly to China. The sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran have had a significant impact on Chinese enterprises such as Kunlun Bank and ZTE Corporation.

The third is to weaken China's international status and influence.

Us Secretary of State Pompeo has been on a number of occasions in recent yearsVilify the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative, calling it a "debt trap" for countries along the routeHowever, on the debt issue of countries along the route, China usually adopts the method of rollover or debt cancellation after friendly negotiation, and the recovery of mortgage assets accounts for only about 2.6% of the total disclosed amount.

Rule war: in the field of international organizations and rules, the United States does not recognize China's market economy and developing country status, and unilaterally presses WTO to revise international rules, even breaking its own system when its practical interests are violated.

The United States has long pursued realism, and the establishment and overthrow of the rule system serves its practical interests, such as the establishment led by the United States in 1944.Bretton Woods systemThe main reason is that it is conducive to U. S. foreign economic expansion. When the US dollar crisis and the US economic crisis broke out frequently, and the demands of various countries for the exchange of gold affected the economic and financial stability of the United States, the United States broke the Bretton Woods system. At ordinary times, fairness and freedom regard themselves as the global moral benchmark, and at critical times, they go back on their promises centering on self-interest. In recent years, the United States has challenged its own free trade system. By obstructing the appointment of appeal judges and threatening to paralyze the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, the United States has pressured the WTO to revise the standards for developing countries, not to recognize China's market economy status, and to change the special and differential treatment provisions.

Public opinion war: in the field of international public opinion, the United States basically controls traditional media and emerging social media public opinion, and unites its allies to denigrate China's international image.

Seven of the world's top 10 media groups are American companiesAs a result, the United States controls most of the world's English-language media, and the mainstream media often selectively favor American interests when reporting, and constantly lead to discredit the image of China.In traditional media, double standards are adopted to distinguish between allies and non-allies of the United States.For example, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, a monarchy that often buys American weapons, has been called "the vanguard of democracy" by the Western media for slightly improving women's rights. China's reform and opening up, developing market economy and promoting the development of border countries with the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative have been described as "non-market economy countries" and "debt trap diplomacy".In terms of emerging social media, Twitter and Facebook Inc have deleted accounts and content that speak for China.In August 2019, the US social media company Twitter deleted 936 Chinese accounts and closed 200000 Chinese user accounts on the grounds of "spreading fake news and denigrating demonstrations in Hong Kong, China". Announced the closure of seven pages, three groups and five accounts. But rumors demonizing China and accounts of extreme separatists are still popular on Twitter and Facebook Inc. The United States also joined forces with its allies to jointly exert pressure on China at the G7 meeting in an attempt to put China in a passive position of international public opinion.

Second, the ultimate conjecture: from the perspective of history and international experience, the Sino-US game is nothing but four endings.

1. China is contained and the United States maintains world hegemony, such as the trade war between the United States and Japan. This scenario can only happen when China deals with the wrong situation, such as a retrogression in reform and opening up, a return to isolation and a flood irrigation to deal with the economic downturn. At present, China is accelerating the promotion of a new round of reform and opening up, actively promoting high-quality development and the three major battles, the risks are gradually released, and China is an independent sovereign state, not an affiliated relationship between Japan and the United States, so the first outcome is unlikely to happen. but we should also be wary of the rising far-left trend of thought.

2. China and the United States decoupled, forming two opposing camps and falling into the "Thucydides trap", such as the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. China is not the Soviet Union at that time, and it is difficult for the United States to bring down China through the Cold War, and it will only hurt both sides. First, China's economic strength is relatively stronger than that of the Soviet Union, and the industrial chain is more perfect. China's GDP is equivalent to 66% of that of the United States, and it has built the largest manufacturing chain in the world. Second, China's market economic system is better than the highly centralized planned economy of the Soviet Union, and continues to open up. Third, China continues to integrate into the world, breaking the division of labor in the value chain based on comparative advantage will only reduce production efficiency and push up production costs. The economic and trade relationship between China and the United States is much higher than that of the United States and the Soviet Union, and decoupling will only lead to mutual losses.

3. China and the United States cooperate and govern together to form a G2 group with China and the United States as the core, such as Germany and France to promote European integration.The process of European integration, led by Germany and France, advocates cooperative co-governance and embeds the country in a larger economic, political and security system, which can maintain the balance of power and balance between the two countries as a whole.After World War II, forAvoid "the nightmare of the rise of neighboring countries"Far-sighted politicians in European countries decided to work together to promote the process of integrationFrom Trade Integration to Monetary UnionStrengthen the deep integration of European economy through cooperation and co-governance, and solve the problem of European economic development through rules-based negotiations and consultations, so that Europe has enjoyed more than 70 years of peace and prosperity, and may move towards political alliance in the future. China and the United States can refer to"balance of power"The idea is to seek the common interests of China and the United States as much as possible in the balance of power system, form global co-governance with China and the United States as the core, expand the influence of Sino-US co-governance by absorbing core member states, and elect leading countries through regular voting. We suggest that China and the United States actively promote the establishment ofSino-US Free Trade Zone based on "Zero tariff, Zero Barrier, Zero subsidy"。

4. The rise of China and the decline of the United States, such as most of the hegemonic countries and emerging powers in history.As long as China maintains strategic stability, does its own thing well, and firmly promotes a new round of reform and opening up, nothing can stop China's great rejuvenation.

China should try its best to avoid the first and second outcomes of Sino-US relations, and try its best to move towards the third and fourth outcomes of Sino-US co-governance and China's rise.The United States will never give up the dominance of world hegemony or accept the rise of China and the decline of the United States.The game between China and the United States will still be long-term and comprehensive.. Only when China continues to move forward on the path of long-term and correct development, and when both China and the United States realize that the struggle will only hurt both sides, the United States may have to accept the fact of Sino-US co-governance and China's rejuvenation. The essence of Sino-US trade friction is a game of power, a naked competition of strength, and a strategic containment of emerging powers by hegemonic countries. The conflict of civilization and the ideological confrontation of the Cold War mentality are all a cover, and the national governance model, ideology, geographical location, ideology and culture all serve the game of great powers.

History is regular, and any nation that constantly absorbs the achievements of external civilization and continues to learn and make progress will continue to grow. Any country that is complacent, self-righteous and hinders the trend of the times, no matter how powerful it is, is bound to decline. The real problem for the US is not China, but itself. It should focus on how to solve populism, excessive consumption patterns, the wide gap between the rich and the poor, the US dollar Triffin problem and so on. In that year's trade war between the United States and Japan, the United States did not win to contain the rise of Japan, but the success of Reagan's supply-side reform. The real problem for China is not the United States, but the key lies in doing its own thing, strengthening reform and opening up, building a high-level market economy and an open system, and building a free, equal and people-oriented civil society. our world outlook and ideology will naturally be recognized by the world, and history and the people will eventually give the fairest answer.

Full-text link: Sino-American Game: ultimate conjecture