紧抓多肽药物市场机遇，积极布局大健康领域。公司一直注重研发投入，近三年研发投入占总收入的比例逐年上升，2020-2022 年，公司研发费用率17.22%、18.01%、26.57%，与辉凌制药合作深化拓宽生殖医学和孕产健康领域多肽药物，此外在多肽药物的消费大健康应用场景上，公司已开发出多款现象级单品，有望凭借技术优势占据国内多肽大健康消费品品牌影响力鳌头，欣眠系列单品有望打开千亿级助眠经济市场，特立帕肽上市获批可期，千万级大单品营收在即。Investment logic:
An established leader in peptide drugs, the impact of collection is basically clear. The company is an established leading enterprise that was launched earlier in the domestic peptide drug industry. Its main products include specialty APIs, injections, customer-specific peptides, solid preparations, drug combination packaging products, and six series of medical device products. In 2022, the company's pharmaceutical revenue accounted for 81.68% of total revenue; API revenue accounted for 12.73% of total revenue. After the impact of the implementation of policies such as drug collection in 2018, the company's revenue gradually declined and stabilized at around 700 million yuan in 2020-2022. As of the latest national ninth batch collection, Hanyu Pharmaceutical's core formulation, trimetazidine hydrochloride sustained-release tablets, injectable thymus, etibatide injections, injectable somatostatin, and atosiban acetate injections, has been collected. The core varieties of the company's traditional main business have been collected, and the impact on performance is basically clear.
Large orders for the blockbuster liraglutide continue, and the company is a leader in commercializing GLP-l drugs overseas. In terms of synthesis technology for specialty peptides, the company has accumulated more than 20 years of experience. Through long-term cooperation with customers, the company has established extremely high customer stickiness. Research and development of the company's major drugs such as liraglutide and tirpotide began early and is progressing smoothly; the raw materials for liraglutide and simeglutide have all obtained DMF records for US APIs. Liraglutide APIs and formulations received large orders of 219 million yuan and 103 million yuan respectively in September and November 2023, and formulation orders will enjoy a 50% share of net sales in the future, making it the leader in commercializing GLP-1 drugs in China.
Seize the opportunities in the peptide drug market and actively expand the health sector. The company has always focused on R&D investment. The share of R&D investment in total revenue in the past three years has increased year by year. In 2020-2022, the company's R&D expenses rate is 17.22%, 18.01%, and 26.57%, and cooperated with Huiling Pharmaceuticals to further expand peptide drugs in the fields of reproductive medicine and maternity health. Furthermore, in the consumer health application scenarios of peptide drugs, the company has developed a variety of phenomenal single products, which are expected to take the lead in domestic polypeptide consumer health product brands. The Xinmian series products are expected to open up the 100-billion-level sleep aid economy market, and Teripatide can be approved for the market. The revenue for the 10-million-level single product is imminent.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 610 million yuan, 1.07 billion yuan and 1.72 billion yuan, respectively, up -13%, 75%, and 61% year-on-year respectively. Covered for the first time, giving it a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Generic drug collection exceeds expectations; product orders fall short of expectations; major product development progress falls short of expectations; actual controller equity pledges are high; product release falls short of expectations, etc.
