Recently, gold has risen like a rainbow, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the year. On Thursday, spot gold once surpassed 2,160 US dollars/ounce, breaking the record of 2,135 US dollars/ounce set in December last year, reaching a record high. As of press release, it was $2,1577.9 per ounce.

Although the price of gold reached a record high, market observers pointed out that the actual price of gold, adjusted for inflation, is still far below the peak in the past. Currently, Wall Street analysts generally expect that the strength of gold prices will continue until at least the second half of this year.

Is gold still not at its peak? Wall Street is still generally bullish on gold

Citigroup analysts claimed in Monday's report that they are “bullish on gold in the medium term” and expect a 25% chance of gold prices reaching a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half of this year.

However, their basic forecast for gold is still $2,150, and they also reiterated that in the next 12 to 16 months, the price of gold may even reach $3,000 per ounce. Citibank sees gold as a “recession hedge” for developed markets, and increasingly believes that the uncertainty brought about by the US November election will provide a favorable factor for gold.

A Dutch International Group (ING) strategist said on Tuesday:

We believe that the Fed's policy will remain a key factor in the outlook for gold prices in the next few months, and it is expected that the price of gold will continue to fluctuate in the next few months, as the market will also respond to macroeconomic drivers and geopolitical events.”

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said:

The US economy is already showing slight signs of cooling, and the January inflation panic is unlikely to continue. There are some seasonal factors in it, so the market believes that hopes for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year have once again brightened.

Higher interest rates usually cause the price of gold to fall as high-yielding assets become more attractive. Whether it is the end of 2023 or the rise in gold prices in recent days, it is driven by market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon.

Using CME's FedWatch tool, market pricing shows that the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June is 57.2%.

On the other hand, in times of economic downturn, gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset. In particular, when yields are suppressed due to loose monetary policies, an unprofitable asset such as gold can also be viewed as a sound investment option.

Analysts at Berenberg Bank also pointed out on Monday that if Trump wins the election, it will have a “significant positive impact” on gold:

This is because policy uncertainty can lead to risk aversion. Furthermore, the volatility brought about by the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Gaza will further support this safe-haven asset.

UBS believes that the price of gold is expected to challenge $2,200/oz:

The bank's strategist Joni Teves said that although there is great uncertainty about the timing and extent of the Fed's interest rate cut, the bottom line is that the market expects the Fed to relax its policy and the US interest rate will fall. “Continued geopolitical tensions require diversification of assets, and gold has always been one of the top choices in this regard. At the same time, the world's 4 billion people will have a total of 76 elections this year, and macro-fluctuations are likely to be even greater.” According to the report.

International gold price frenzy, what investment opportunities can we pay attention to?

Analysts said that due to the better-than-expected performance of the US economy and the continued hawkish stance of Fed policymakers on monetary policy, gold-related targets have yet to follow the sharp rise. However, judging from subsequent trends, analysts believe that gold-linked stocks have sustained upward momentum.

The following are the gold-related investment targets for Hong Kong and US stocks compiled by Futu News for your reference:

• US gold stocks and ETFs

Gold ETF:

$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$,$VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$,$VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)$,$Ishares Inc Msci Global Gold Miners Etf (RING.US)$,$Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS.US)$,$Gold Trust Ishares (IAU.US)$.

Among them,$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$It is one of the most liquid commodity ETFs. It began trading in 2004, expanding the potential market for gold. Prior to GLD, investors in the gold market were limited to physical gold bars and coins, futures contracts, and gold mining stocks.

Leveraged products:$MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN (GDXU.US)$,$Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (JNUG.US)$,$Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NUGT.US)$.

US gold stocks:

$Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$,$Franco-Nevada (FNV.US)$,$Agnico Eagle (AEM.US)$,$Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW.US)$,$Gold Fields (GFI.US)$,$Newmont (NEM.US)$,$Agnico Eagle (AEM.US)$,$SSR Mining (SSRM.US)$.

• Hong Kong gold stocks and ETFs

Gold ETF:$SPDR Gold Trust (02840.HK)$,$Value Gold ETF (03081.HK)$,$Hang Seng RMB Gold ETF (83168.HK)$.

Hong Kong gold stocks:$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$,$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$,$CHINAGOLDINTL (02099.HK)$,$SD GOLD (01787.HK)$,$LINGBAO GOLD (03330.HK)$.

Dear friends, if you are interested in gold-related investment opportunities, please continue reading for more investment education content, learn analysis methods together, and seize investment opportunities!

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