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阿科力(603722)投资价值分析报告:国内聚醚胺行业龙头 布局COC/COP材料拓宽成长

Akeli (603722) Investment Value Analysis Report: Domestic polyetheramine industry leaders lay out COC/COP materials to broaden growth

光大證券 ·  Mar 5

Deeply involved in the field of new chemical materials, and worked hard for 20 years. The company was founded in 1999, and since its establishment, it has always focused on the development and production of new chemical material products. The company's main business is R&D, production and sales of new chemical material products such as polyether amines, optical-grade polymer materials, and high light transmission materials. Through continuous independent innovation, the company has become a leading domestic technology-based enterprise for large-scale production of polyether amines and (methyl) isoboryl ester with perfect chemical infrastructure, self-developed patented technology, and rich production process control experience.

The company is a leading domestic polyether amine enterprise with excellent product performance, opening up application space. Due to its excellent performance, polyether amine is regarded as a new type of fine chemical material with great potential for development, and is widely used in many industries such as new energy, construction, and adhesives. According to QYResearch, the global polyether amine market will reach USD 1,293 billion in 2029, corresponding to a CAGR of about 7.57% for the 2023-2029 period. According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, China's demand for polyether amines is expected to reach 148,000 tons in 2025, corresponding to a CAGR of about 15.7% from 2021 to 2025. The company is one of the leading domestic polyether amine enterprises and currently has a polyether amine production capacity of 20,000 tons/year.

The company's polyether amine products are manufactured by a continuous process, and have many core technologies in production technology and catalyst preparation technology. The company plans to raise no more than 271 million yuan in capital to build a “project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of polyether amine” (total investment of 327 million yuan). At that time, the company's polyether amine production capacity will increase to 40,000 tons/year.

Lay out new high-end optical materials COC/COP to expand applications in the fields of optics and medicine. COC/COP is a high-end optical material with excellent performance. It has great potential for development and can be used in the fields of optics, medicine, and packaging. China's COC/COP consumption is expected to rise to 29,000 tons by 2025. However, COC/COP production has deep technical barriers, and reaction monomers, catalysts, and polymerization processes are all very difficult. Currently, the country relies entirely on imports, and it has become a “stuck neck” material that limits the development of related industries. With significant R&D investment over the years, the company has now broken through key technologies for cyclic olefin polymer production and is ready to industrialize cyclic olefin polymer (COC/COP) projects. The company plans to build a project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of optical materials (cyclic olefin monomers and polymers) at the Qianjiang Jianghan Salt Chemical Industrial Park. At the same time, the company has reached agreement of intent with many companies in the fields of optical lenses and medical care, and related COC/COP product verification and cooperation are progressing steadily.

Profit forecasting, valuation and rating: The company is one of the leading enterprises in the domestic polyether amine field, and also has high-end optical materials COC/COP. As demand in the downstream wind power sector continues to grow and related raw material prices fall, the company's profit on polyetheramine products will gradually recover with its own product advantages and scale advantages, as well as the expansion of production capacity at the Hubei base. In terms of optical materials, as demand for COC/COP materials increases in consumer electronics, intelligent driving, medical devices, etc., the company will clearly benefit as the first domestic manufacturer to break through COC/COP technical barriers. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.24/0.49/083 million yuan in 2023-2025, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.27/0.56/0.95 yuan/share, respectively. This is the first coverage, giving the company an “increase in wealth” rating.

Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations, risk of raw material price fluctuations, capacity construction falls short of expectations, COC/COP product promotion risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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