Core views:
The company's performance is progressing steadily. According to the company's 2023 performance report, the company achieved annual revenue of 1,153 million yuan (YOY +14.3%) and net profit of 103 million yuan (YOY +4.8%), mainly due to the continuous expansion of the medical device business of the French holding subsidiary, which achieved an overall net profit of about 175 million yuan. The company's Fibroscan has been recommended in more than 160 international guidelines and sold to more than 100 countries around the world.
The NASH industry is about to explode, and Fibroscan is expected to be released. Fibroscan has an important academic and market position in the global field of liver disease. It has been recommended by many guidelines around the world, and its products are well known.
Compared with other testing methods, Fiibroscan is the world's first non-invasive testing instrument for liver fibrosis. It has the comprehensive advantages of non-invasiveness, low examination cost, objectivity, good reproducibility, and simple operation.
The company focuses on NAFLD/NASH diagnosis and treatment, raising the global demand for clinical application of Fibroscan and promoting Fibroscan to become the global gold standard in the field of NASH non-invasive diagnosis.
The sales model for soft liver tablets is gradually changing, and the management of liver disease patients empowers drugs. The company's soft liver tablets are the first anti-liver fibrosis drug approved by the State Drug Administration. The expansion of retail channels has helped independent pricing of drugs; pediatric medical care management and chronic liver disease management are progressing steadily.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company is a leader in non-invasive testing equipment for liver fibrosis. Clinical data on new NASH drugs is positive, and the industry is about to break out. We are optimistic about the company Fibroscan's technical advantages, academic and market position, and potential in the field of NASH screening, diagnosis, and follow-up.
The company's EPS is expected to be 0.39 yuan/share, 0.73 yuan/share, and 1.00 yuan/share in 23-25, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations and considering the company's growth, the company will be given a 2024 65X PE valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of 47.15 yuan/share. It is covered for the first time, and a “buy” rating is given.
Risk warning. Risks brought about by changes in the macroeconomy and external environment; increased risk of industry competition; risk of price fluctuations of major raw materials.