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茅台成A股"奢侈品",半数股民买不起,但斌:观点一直没变

Maotai became an A-share “luxury product”, and half of the shareholders couldn't afford it, but Bin: The opinion has not changed

券商中国 ·  Sep 24, 2019 20:34  · 解读

Author: Xu Xiaoru

Original title: a Maotai "hold up" the province's GDP! Maotai has become an A-share "luxury", with a starting price of 120000, which half of the investors cannot afford, and has soared 243times since its listing.

After breaking through the thousand yuan mark, Maotai seems to have opened the upward channel!

At the close of trading on the 24th, Guizhou Moutai rose 3.05% in a single day, and its share price climbed to 1184 yuan per share, reaching another all-time high, and the total market capitalization also climbed to 1.4873 trillion yuan.

While setting a new record, Maotai set a new record, officially surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in the ranking of A-share market capitalization, 4.4 billion yuan more than ICBC, and becoming the A-share market capitalization champion.

In 2018, when Maotai exceeded 700 yuan, the market was full of doubts. At present, the purchase of Maotai shares, which costs close to 120000 yuan, has really become a "luxury" for A-shares. Many people can no longer afford to buy it. They just answer the sentence, "at first you ignored me, but now you can no longer afford it." "

According to the yearbook of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, by the end of 2017, there were 21.797 million investors with less than 100000 yuan, accounting for 55.28 percent, and 11.8707 million investors between 100000 and 500000, accounting for 30.11 percent. It is estimated that almost half of the investors cannot afford to buy Guizhou Moutai at all, and A-share "luxury goods" are well deserved.

If you take into account the increase since the listing, Maotai's increase is even more regrettable for missed investors. By the close of trading on September 24, Guizhou Moutai had risen as much as 243 times since its listing, ranking fourth in A-share history.

The value of Maotai rose to the first place in A shares, surpassing the GDP of Guizhou Province.

By the close of trading on September 24th, Guizhou Moutai rose 3.05% in a single day, and its share price climbed to 1184 yuan per share, reaching another all-time high, and the total market capitalization also climbed to 1.4873 trillion yuan.

While setting an all-time high, the total market capitalization of Maotai rose to the first place in A-shares, successfully surpassing the "first row of the universe" Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. At the close of trading on the 24th, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's share price was 5.47 yuan per share, and the market capitalization of A shares was 1.4829 trillion yuan, 4.4 billion yuan less than that of Maotai.

In addition, the A-share market capitalization of Agricultural Bank Of China and Petrochina also exceeded the 1,000bn mark, ranking third and fourth, respectively. Ping An Insurance, Bank of China Ltd., China Merchants Bank, China Life Insurance Company Limited, Wuliangye and China Petroleum & Chemical ranked fifth to tenth.

However, if you calculate the total market capitalization of AqiH, Guizhou Moutai still ranks third, behind Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Ping An Insurance.

In addition, according to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the GDP of Guizhou Province is about 1.48 trillion yuan. Today, the total market capitalization of Guizhou Moutai has exceeded the GDP of Guizhou Province.

In 2018, when Maotai exceeded 700 yuan, the market was full of doubts. At present, the purchase of Maotai shares, which is close to 120000 yuan, has really become a "luxury" for A-shares, and many people can no longer afford it.

It has risen 243 times since its listing, ranking fourth in A shares.

Not only that, as the leader of the liquor industry, the share price of Guizhou Moutai broke out this year, which also led the entire liquor sector out of the spotlight. So far, Guizhou Moutai has increased by 103.65%, which has successfully doubled.

However, looking at the liquor sector, Maotai is not the fastest rising, or even not in the top five. Since the beginning of the year, Wuliangye has risen 172.98%, making it the biggest stock in the liquor sector. In addition, liquor stocks such as Jiugui Liquor, Modern margin, Gujing tribute Liquor, Shanxi Fen Liquor, Luzhou laojiao and other liquor stocks have all risen by more than 120%.

Since the beginning of this year, the liquor index has risen as high as 86.74%, far outperforming the 19.71% of the Shanghai Composite Index and 29.58% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

If you take into account the increase since the listing, Maotai's increase is even more regrettable for missed investors.

By the close of trading on September 24, Guizhou Moutai had risen as much as 243 times since its listing, ranking fourth in A-share history.

And all A shares listed since the rise and fall of the ranking, ranked first is also a liquor stock-Luzhou laojiao, up as high as 290 times.

Since the beginning of the year, Luzhou laojiao has risen 121.63%, making it a success that has exceeded Vanke's 265 times since its listing, making it the number one bull share in A shares.

Yili shares ranked third in terms of growth since listing, up 248 times, while Gree Electric Appliances ranked fifth, up 180 times since its listing.

Compared with the other four of the top five middle schools in history, Maotai's main loss was a few years later. For example, Vanke listed in 1991, Luzhou laojiao listed in 1994, Yili and Gree both listed in 1996, and Maotai was the only stock listed after 2000.

Institutions are still bullish, but Binxian's point of view has not changed.

After Maotai's market capitalization ranks first in A-shares, what do institutions think of Maotai's stock price?

Dongfang Harbor Investment Chairman, Maotai "loyal fan" Dan Bin told reporters that his views on Maotai have not changed.

"the rise of a country must be comprehensive. Just like my visit to Seattle this time, there are leading enterprises like Microsoft Corp and Amazon.Com Inc, manufacturing enterprises like Boeing Co aircraft that embody the pinnacle of human industrial civilization, and traditional consumer enterprises like Starbucks Corp. It is the same in China. At the moment, China has the brilliance of leading liquor enterprises, as well as the dazzling of Huawei, DJI, BABA, Tencent and other enterprises. I hope that China will also develop in an all-round way in a universal sense. "Dan Bin said.

Zhai Jingyong, chairman of Shenzhen Banyan Investment, said that standing in his current position, he is still optimistic about Maotai. Maotai, as a luxury brand, is currently in short supply, with steady profit growth. The increase in price will continue to lead the new stage of blue chip in the future. "

Chen Jiande, general manager of the private fund, believes that Maotai's short-term share price and valuation are not cheap. However, in the medium to long term, it is not expensive under its current performance growth rate and return on net assets. For most investors, they have perfectly missed the rest of the rally.

Huatai said in the research newspaper that this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" traditional consumption peak season, China's liquor industry has shown a trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price, the Matthew effect of high-end liquor represented by Guizhou Moutai is prominent, and a number of market prices and terminal retail prices continue to rise. Maotai's strong terminal demand protects its annual performance, which may continue to grow rapidly. The target price is expected to range from 1251.60 yuan to 1323.12 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Founder Securities also said that the long-term contradiction between supply and demand in Maotai has not changed, the bearing capacity of rigid demand is strong, and it is expected that there is limited room for price decline, and there is a high probability that it will continue to rise in the future. The peak season of the Mid-Autumn Festival is basically over. On the whole, the recent price performance of Wuliangye and national cellar in high-end wine is relatively stable, and the movable sales situation is good, especially the internal and external reform of Wuliangye has further accelerated the release of growth potential. From the liquor stock price trend, the market awareness of high-end liquor tends to be consistent, next year's performance is robust and deterministic, but the difference between the sub-high-end is still large, it is suggested that the position can gradually increase the regional leading sub-high-end configuration.

Edit / Iris

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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