Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The performance forecast was lower than expected. Net profit attributable to the mother for 2023-2025 was reduced to 2.05/2.59 billion yuan (RMB, same below), EPS to 0.16 (-0.11) /0.20 (-0.15) /0.28 (-0.19) yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE was 18x/15x/11x. Performance summary: The company issued a performance forecast, and the estimated revenue for 2023 was 11.7-1.22 billion yuan (RMB, same below), down 22%-25% year on year: Expected net profit for 2023 is 1.6-2.1 billion yuan 100 million yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit; the adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated to be 270-30 million yuan. It is calculated that the loss of hotel optimization and adjustment in 2023 is about 0.9-130 million yuan. The estimated 2023H2 revenue is 46-510 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26%-33%; the 2023H2 net profit is expected to be 0.03-53 billion yuan; and the 2023H2 adjusted net profit is expected to be 0.93-123 million yuan.

The performance forecast fell short of expectations, and 2023H2 Hotel optimization and adjustment losses increased. ① In terms of revenue, the company took the initiative to adjust the direct store network and vigorously developed the partner store network, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue, and the recovery of the same store was weak in the second half of the year. ② In terms of profit, the profit margin of the franchise model is lower than that of direct management under the calculation method of profit margin in the supply chain: the decline in daily sales reduces the profit margin of stores: 2023H2 Hotel optimization and adjustment losses of 0.7 to 110 million yuan. Compared with H1, the sharp increase affects the net interest rate to the mother.

With the help of the Hi Beer partner model, the pace of opening stores is expected to accelerate. According to the company's announcement, since its launch in June 2023, more than 180 Hi-Beer partner stores have been opened, covering a total of 133 cities from first-tier cities to first-tier cities, and will accelerate expansion in 2024. The adjusted revenue composition of Haibier's new model: ① Brand cooperation fees are divided into three levels of 10/15/200,000 yuan according to the store type; ② Supply chain revenue: based on the partner's gross profit margin of 65% and direct operating gross profit margin of 72%, calculated to increase the company's cost by about 25% to sell to franchisees, and the gross profit margin of the supply chain is 20%; ③ franchise service fee of 12,000 yuan per year.

Risk warning: The opening of stores fell short of expectations, there was a marked decline in same-store stores, and consumer demand was weak.