1. The leader in photovoltaic cell laser equipment, leading the market share in the P-type era. The company was founded in 2008 and continues to focus on innovatively applying laser technology to the high-efficiency solar photovoltaic cell industry. The PERC laser ablation equipment and Se laser doping equipment launched by the company account for more than 80% of the market share in the industry. At the same time, the company successfully applied laser processing technology to new battery and component technologies such as TopCon, HJT, BC, and perovskite.
2. Leader of laser technology in the N-type era. In terms of TopCon batteries, lasers are mainly used in battery boron diffusion and SE processes. At the same time, the company independently develops laser induced sintering technology (LIF) equipment, which can improve TopCon battery conversion efficiency by more than 0.2%. In BC batteries, laser technology is mainly used for core process steps such as etching masks, preparing PN region cross-finger structures, PN zone isolation, and passivated film grooving. The value of a single GW has increased significantly. In addition, the company actively develops laser process technology related to HJT, perovskite, components, etc., and continues to lead the development of the industry.
3. The market space for photovoltaic cell laser equipment industry is broad. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the battery production capacity in 2021 and 2022 was 424 and 583 GW respectively. According to SOLORZOOM's forecast, the effective cell production capacity will reach 886 and 1000 GW respectively in 2023 and 2024. As competitive pressure in the industry intensifies, the rate of new production capacity expansion has slowed in 2024. We expect TopCon's production capacity to account for 34%, 66%, and 54% respectively in 2023-2025, HJT production capacity will account for 6%, 8%, and 15% respectively, and BC production capacity will account for 7%, 12%, and 30% respectively. We estimate that the market space for photovoltaic cell laser equipment in 2023-2025 is 5.8 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively.
4. Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 17.13/22.55/ 3,011 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 5067/7.06/953 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 2.07/2.59/3.49 yuan/share, respectively. We believe that as a leading company in photovoltaic laser equipment, the company has obvious technical advantages. In the future, it will benefit from new technology such as BC, cover it for the first time, and give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: PV demand falls short of expectations; industry overcapacity; company technology development falls short of expectations.