Hongxing Leather is an ideal L7, L8, and L9 interior leather supplier, and has welcomed incremental orders along with the increase in the delivery volume of the Ideal L series.
Ideal 23Q4 revenue also increased by 136%, and the 24Q1 forecast reached a new high for the same period, or mainly the new 24-year L7/8/9 models will launch market support in March. At the same time, along with the launch of the lower-priced L6 in April, the car purchase threshold will be lowered, and delivery volume is expected to reach a new high. In November 2023, the cumulative delivery volume of the Ideal L Series exceeded 350,000 units.
In addition, Hongxing has joined hands with leading NEV brands, and the business scale continues to grow. Currently, the main customers include domestic new energy manufacturers such as Ideal Auto, NIO Auto, Wenjie Auto, and Nezha Auto, as well as traditional car brands such as Mazda and Geely. In the future, Hongxing will continue to strengthen cooperation with original customers, actively bid for new models from original customers, and also actively explore new customers, such as BYD, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC, and Krypton brands.
Bind high-quality customer performance to achieve results, and the scale of business continues to grow
Leather suppliers for automotive interiors have a long verification cycle, high review threshold, and strong customer stickiness. Hongxing relies on the company's manufacturing platform and raw material resource advantages to rapidly expand production and ensure stable quality/delivery.
Demand in the main shoe and bag industry is recovering, and Baotai's business expansion is actively profitable
The recovery of terminal consumption, increased procurement enthusiasm of downstream customers, and increased supply-side concentration have led to an increase in the company's shoe, bag, and leather sales. On the other hand, new product development closely follows market demand, with a complete range of products and high-quality customer channels, boosting the gross profit margin of the main business. Currently, the company actively lays out overseas markets, establishes cooperation with overseas brands into its supplier system, and also establishes links with brand processing plants to prepare in advance for the subsequent recovery of overseas orders.
The company successfully entered the field of two-layer leather and collagen raw materials through Fujian Baotai's second-tier holding subsidiary. As Fujian Baotai's business expands in the future, it is expected to have a positive effect on the company's profits.
Adjust profit forecasts to maintain “buy” ratings
The sales volume of the company's traditional main business grew steadily. At the same time, it invested in the establishment of Fujian Baotai, and successfully entered the field of two-layer leather and collagen raw materials. The increase in sales of new energy vehicles is driving demand for leather for automotive interiors, and I am optimistic that Hongxing will continue to expand. Considering the recovery in demand in the main shoe and bag industry and the release of profits for Baotai, we expect the company's revenue for 23-25 to be 27/34/43 billion, respectively, and net profit to mother of 2/2.7/340 million (previous value was 2.3/32/4.4 billion), EPS 0.7/0.9/1.2 yuan/share (previous value was 0.8/1.1/1.5 yuan/share), and corresponding PE is 15/12/9X, respectively.
Risk warning: the risk of environmental protection policies; the risk of product innovation and technological progress; the risk of price fluctuations of major raw materials; exchange rate risk; risk of reducing the amount of natural leather used in uppers due to changes in fashion trends, etc.