并购标的逐步放量，新增产能陆续释放，“内生+外延”业绩韧性凸显。公司率先打破了国际领先品牌的技术垄断，产品性能指标处于国际先进水平，随着国产化趋势加强，公司有望持续收益。在未来发展规划上，公司“内生+外延”将持续横向及纵向扩张规模，加速市占率提升。内生方面，截至2023 年7 月，公司白云技改项目已新增成核剂及水滑石产能约4000 吨，募投项目预计2024 年9 月投产，合计新增约36600 吨产能；外延方面，公司1.58 亿收购科澳化学及信达丰100%股权，外延拓展抗氧剂业务，打造一体化服务模式。Key points of investment:
Company announcement: The company released the 2023 annual results report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 800 million yuan (YoY +15.07%), net profit of 226 million yuan (YoY +15.59%), net profit of 218 million yuan (YoY +27.75%); of these, 23Q4 achieved operating income of 215 million yuan (YoY +6.44%, QoQ 0%) and net profit of 58 million yuan (YoY -1.69%, QoQ +11.54%), net profit not attributable to mother At $57 million (YoY -1.72%, QoQ +42.5%), the results were in line with expectations.
Q4 The scale of downstream PP and PVC continues to increase, and industry demand is expanding. With the release of new production capacity in the downstream industry, demand for the company's main products remained strong. According to Baichuan News and Zhuochuang Information, domestic production of PP, the largest downstream demand for nucleating agents, reached 8.533,800 tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 7.4% over the previous year; the current domestic production of hydrotalcite, the largest demand for PVC, reached 5.924,900 tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. Overall, the downstream PP and PVC industry will enter a new production capacity investment cycle. The company's main products are nucleating agents, synthetic hydrotalc, and composite additives, which are key materials for manufacturing high-performance resins. As domestic PP and PVC production gradually develops to high-end, the company is expected to usher in a long-term boom.
M&A targets were gradually increased, new production capacity was released one after another, and the resilience of “endogenous+extension” performance was highlighted. The company took the lead in breaking the technology monopoly of leading international brands. Product performance indicators are at the international advanced level. As the trend of localization strengthens, the company is expected to continue to make profits. In terms of future development plans, the company's “endogenous+extension” will continue to expand horizontally and vertically to accelerate the increase in market share. On the endogenous side, as of July 2023, the company's Baiyun technical improvement project has added about 4,000 tons of nucleating agents and hydrotalcite production capacity. The fund-raising project is expected to be put into operation in September 2024, adding a total production capacity of about 36,600 tons. On the epitaxial side, the company acquired 100% of the shares of Keao Chemical and Cindafeng to expand the antioxidant business and create an integrated service model.
Profit forecast and valuation: It is expected that some employees will be charged year-end rewards and R&D expenses in the fourth quarter. We lowered the company's 2023 performance forecast, expected to achieve net profit of 226 million yuan (233 million yuan before adjustment), maintain the 2024-2025 profit forecast, and expect to achieve net profit of 2.94 million yuan and 390 million yuan. The current market value is equivalent to PE valuations of 20X, 15X, and 12X, respectively. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; progress of new projects falls short of expectations; the industry has new entrants, and the competitive landscape has deteriorated.