国内储能招标复苏，美国储能在建规模高增，储能需求高景气；液冷温控渗透率提升，预计储能温控行业市场空间有望从2023 年的43.2 亿元提升至108.7 亿元，2023-2027 年CAGR 为26%。温控环节与终端产品集成度较高，需与客户协同开发及定制化生产，客户黏性较强。公司与宁德时代、阳光电源等头部储能客户深度合作，23H1 储能收入2.49 亿元，大幅超过2022 全年水平，增速行业领先，显示出公司在头部客户的份额提升。Key points of investment:
The company has long been deeply involved in the field of liquid cooling and temperature control. Energy storage temperature control is developing rapidly and its market share is at the forefront of the industry. Data center and semiconductor equipment temperature control products are poised for a new growth curve. Traditional application fields are expected to fully benefit from the continuous increase in demand brought about by the renewal cycle of CNC machine tools, domestic substitution, and acceleration of overseas travel.
Energy storage temperature control bindings fully benefit from high demand
Domestic energy storage tenders are recovering, the scale of energy storage construction in the US is increasing, and demand for energy storage is booming; the penetration rate of liquid cooling temperature control has increased, and the market space of the energy storage temperature control industry is expected to increase from 4.32 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.87 billion yuan, and the CAGR in 2023-2027 is 26%. The temperature control process is highly integrated with terminal products, requires collaborative development and customized production with customers, and customer stickiness is strong. The company cooperated deeply with leading energy storage customers such as Ningde Times and Sunshine Power. 23H1 energy storage revenue was 249 million yuan, which greatly exceeded the level of the full year of 2022. The growth rate is leading in the industry, showing an increase in the company's share of leading customers.
Data center and semiconductor temperature control are poised for a new growth curve
According to Huawei's forecast, global AI computing power demand in 2030 may increase 500 times compared to 2020; the three major operators plan to apply liquid cooling technology to more than 50% of data centers in 2025; the CAGR for liquid cooled data centers is expected to reach 59.5% in 2023-2027. The company has a comprehensive technical and product layout in the field of data center liquid cooling. It has launched full-chain solutions for plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling, with a comprehensive PUE of 1.04. In the field of temperature control of semiconductor equipment, the key performance parameters of the company's products are close to those of first-tier manufacturers, and it has gradually expanded downstream customers such as Beifang Huachuang, Chipboard Microelectronics, Huahai Qingke, and Shanghai Microelectronics.
The business cycle of traditional CNC equipment is improving and speeding up overseas
The replacement cycle for metalworking machine tools is generally around 10 years. The peak of machine tool production in China was around 2014. The manufacturing upgrade and renewal cycle drove an increase in demand, compounded by the continuous increase in the CNC conversion rate, and the sales volume of the company's CNC machine tool temperature control products is expected to grow rapidly. Companies in the field of CNC equipment have high-quality customer resources, mostly listed companies and international companies; the company is strengthening overseas market development through its German subsidiary ATF, which is expected to further benefit from the market opportunities brought about by the return of overseas manufacturing.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 23-25 to be 19.0/25.1/3.14 billion yuan, respectively, up 89.0%/31.8%/24.9% year-on-year; net profit to mother will be 1.9/2.7/390 million yuan, respectively, up 47.3%/45.6%/40.7% year-on-year, respectively, and a three-year CAGR of 44.5%. The absolute valuation method measures the company's value per share of 47.51 yuan, which is 25 times the company's average PE in 24 years. Given the company's high demand for downstream energy storage and broad prospects for semiconductor and data center businesses, the comprehensive absolute valuation method and relative valuation method gave the company 30 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 48.9 yuan to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New energy and energy storage installations fall short of expectations; market development in emerging fields falls short of expectations; market competition intensifies; raw material prices fluctuate.
