Monday, March 4

Keywords: National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held in Beijing, Sea Financial Report

On Monday, in terms of financial events, the Chinese National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) was held in Beijing. The 2nd session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will open at 3 p.m. on March 4 in the Great Hall of the People and close on the morning of March 10. The session will last for 6 days.

In terms of IPOs, two US stocks will be listed:$Ryde Group (RYDE.US)$,$Armlogi Holding Corp. (BTOC.US)$.

In terms of financial reports, “Little Tencent in Southeast Asia”$Sea (SE.US)$Earnings will be announced in advance of the US stock market on Monday.

Tuesday, March 5

Keywords: Tokyo CPI data, US election “Super Tuesday”, NIO financial report

On Tuesday, there was a lot of economic data from China and foreign countries. We can focus on the PMI data for China, Japan, the US and the Eurozone.

Furthermore, Tokyo CPI data for February will be closely watched. According to a survey of economists, CPI inflation in Tokyo, the capital of Japan, may accelerate again in February, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, indicating that conditions are being formed for the Bank of Japan to abandon negative interest rates.

In terms of financial events, the second session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing.

On the US side, the 2024 US presidential election pre-election phase will usher in a key “Super Tuesday”. About one-third of the US regions, including 16 states or overseas territories, will simultaneously hold primary elections, and the election pattern may become more clear thereafter. Previously, former US President Trump made great strides in the Republican Party, while current US President Joe Biden maintained a winning streak “without any doubt” within the Democratic Party.

In terms of financial reporting, China Securities$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Earnings will be released before the US stock market.

Wednesday March 6th

Keywords: “small non-farmers” employment data, Powell's trip to Capitol Hill begins, JD financial report

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, “small non-farmers” data was released! ADP will publish the February employment report.

The number of people employed in ADP is known as “small non-farmers”. Previously, in January, ADP employment recorded the smallest increase since November 2023, and the wage growth rate hit a new low in two years, indicating that the job market has cooled down.

On financial matters, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify semi-annually in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

Judging from the calendar, Powell went to Capitol Hill before the February non-farm payrolls report was released, and his last appearance before the next Federal Reserve policy meeting. Investors usually focus on the question and answer session, where Powell will respond to questions from members of Congress about the economic outlook. Traders will carefully analyze these testimonies to better understand when interest rate cuts are likely to arrive.

In terms of financial reports,$JD.com (JD.US)$Financial reports will be announced in advance of the US stock market, which is worth looking forward to.

Thursday March 7th

Keywords: China's foreign exchange reserves, number of initial US jobless claims, Federal Reserve Economic Beige Book, Biden speech, Bilibili/Broadcom/Costco earnings report

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, let's first focus on a series of US data: the US trade balance, the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week, and the number of corporate layoffs.

On the Chinese side, the central bank will release foreign exchange reserves for February, China's General Administration of Customs will release import and export data for January to February, and trade account data for January to February.

Li Chao of Zheshang Securities believes that there were certain optimistic marginal changes in the total volume and structure of financial data in January 2024. As a “winner and loser” of market conditions, it will clearly boost short-term market risk sentiment. At the same time, Li Chao also pointed out that due to the clear seasonal characteristics of financial data at the beginning of the year, when combined with the Spring Festival this year and last year, the growth rate of credit, social finance, and M1 probably declined during the Spring Festival month in February. After phased interpretation, future sustainability still depends on the effects of demand-side policies.

Furthermore, the ECB will announce the latest interest rate decision, and Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference after the meeting.

The market generally expects that the ECB will continue to “stand still” this time and cut interest rates for the first time in June. Previously, the ECB had stopped raising interest rates three times in a row, keeping the main refinancing interest rate, deposit facility interest rate, and marginal loan interest rate at historical highs of 4.5%, 4%, and 4.75%.

In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release economic situation investigation reports prepared by 12 local federal banks — the Beige Book.

The Beige Book is generally released two weeks before the Federal Reserve's FOMC policy meeting. It is an important basis for Fed officials to evaluate the development and inflation trend of the US economy. According to the Beige Book on Economic Conditions released on January 17, there has been little or no change in economic activity in most regions. Consumer spending is strong, but the labor market is cooling down. Many companies say consumer price sensitivity is increasing.

Additionally, US President Joe Biden delivered a State of the Union address to Congress.

According to reports, US President Joe Biden will deliver a speech on the government's achievements in front of both houses of Congress. According to reports, Biden will advocate increasing taxes and lowering the price of prescription drugs for the rich. Aides described this move as a demonstration of a second-term proposal to protect and implement his economic agenda.

In terms of financial reports, US stocks$Bilibili (BILI.US)$Financial reports will be announced before the market.$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$,$Costco (COST.US)$,$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$Earnings will be announced after the market.

Friday March 8

Keywords: US unemployment rate, February non-farm payrolls data, risk of federal government shutdown, FOMC permanent voting committee speech

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the highlight of the week — the US Department of Labor will release the February Non-Farm Payroll Report.

Earlier, the January non-farm payrolls report showed that the non-farm payrolls surged by 353,000, higher than all analysts' expectations, and that the number of employed people in December was raised from 21.6 to 333,000. The resurgence of the labor market meant that the US economy was still resilient, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may have been delayed.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect US employment growth to slow to 188,000 in February following a blowout of 353,000 jobs in January.

In terms of financial events, US congressmen recently approved a short-term stopgap measure to avoid a partial shutdown of the federal government, but they may still face the risk of closing the doors on Friday. In the newly passed bill, spending on some federal government departments has only been extended by one week: spending involving 6 departments, including the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Transportation, and the Department of Energy, will continue until March 8, or Friday; spending on the other 6 departments will continue until March 22.

The third person in the Federal Reserve, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams will deliver a speech today.

Considering that inflation is still sticky and the economy is relatively strong, Williams said in a recent public speech that there is no need for the Federal Reserve to further tighten its policy and that it still “has a long way to go” to achieve the 2% inflation target. He believes that cutting interest rates three times during the year is “an appropriate starting point.”

In terms of IPOs, two Hong Kong stocks will be listed today:$WK GROUP (02535.HK)$,$LESI GROUP (02540.HK)$.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

edit/emily