Laoguojian's rheumatology and immunization brand awareness is strong, and Yisaipu has had the highest TNFα market share for many years. The company has 400+ marketing teams, and the regional manager-level core sales backbone has an average of 10+ years of experience. The company now covers more than 3,900 medical institutions. Considering the similarities in the distribution of rheumatism and skin immunity in key hospitals and the similar distribution of the declining market, we believe that the platform value of the above commercial team structure infrastructure can be extrapolated to the future commercialization process of IL17 and IL4.

The 3 products already on the market will increase in 2024. The new dosage form 2023M3 of the TNFα (TNFα) pre-filled injection was approved for marketing, which is convenient to administer and improves compliance and accessibility; as the 2023 medical insurance limit for ceptin (HER2) is lifted, MBC first-line reimbursement no longer requires a partnership with Changchun Ruibin, and high growth is expected from 2023 to 2024. Gennidol (CD25 anti-transplant rejection) has been approved for renal transplantation resistance, and there is also clinical demand for hematologic bone marrow transplantation and liver transplantation.

IL17 ranked 3rd in the domestic market, and there is a huge clinical unmet demand in the psoriasis market. The prevalence of psoriasis in China is 0.47%, corresponding to nearly 7 million patients. Currently, the main treatment is traditional therapy, and the penetration rate of biological agents is low. It can support large sales volumes from 2022 to 2023, which suggests that IL17 is used in the huge market for psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis. Two new IL23 models are also being commercialized, and the market size is rapidly expanding. The global market IL17+IL23 has exceeded 10 billion US dollars.

Sansheng Guojian is ahead of the curve, compounding the advantages of commercialization. The speed of sales and peak sales are expected to be optimistic.

The second tier of IL4 has begun registration for phase 3 clinical trials, targeting a huge population of AD. There are more than 70 million AD patients in China, 25% of which are moderate to severe and require systematic treatment intervention. Imported biologics products have been released in large quantities from 2022 to 2023, and initial market education in the AD market has been completed. Sansheng Guojian IL4R monoclonal antibody has initiated phase 3 clinical trials with 23M12. The phase 2 clinical results are significantly superior to the control group, and production is expected to be reported in 2026. At the same time, it will expand to multiple indications such as chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps in the future.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 1,014/11.33/1,196 billion yuan in 2023-2025, and achieve net profit of 2.96/3.23/274 million yuan to mother. As a leading company in the field of self-immunity in China, the company has strong R&D capabilities, and the next clinical pipeline is about to enter commercialization. As new products gradually enter the commercialization stage, the company is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend, cover for the first time, and give a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Revenue from commercial products falls short of expectations; risk that clinical development progress falls short of expectations; risk of competition between similar competitors and new technology treatments; there is a risk that public materials used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.