Shareholders might have noticed that Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIND) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to US$8.93 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$570m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.94 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$623.8m in 2024. This reflects a solid 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 85% to US$0.14. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$626.0m and losses of US$0.15 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
The average price target held steady at US$14.00, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Lindblad Expeditions Holdings shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$14.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Lindblad Expeditions Holdings , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.