IonQ, Inc. (NYSE:IONQ) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$22m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.78 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following the latest results, IonQ's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$40.0m in 2024. This would be a major 81% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 40% to US$1.06 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$39.7m and US$0.73 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$15.70, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on IonQ, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$21.00 and the most bearish at US$11.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of IonQ'shistorical trends, as the 81% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 97% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.7% per year. So although IonQ is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at IonQ. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple IonQ analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for IonQ that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.