Source: Wall Street News Author: Ge Jiaming
China Construction News published an article stating that the current overall real estate market trend will be biased based only on partial data from the top 100 housing enterprises. Further analysis and judgment should be made based on the situation of new and second-hand housing, the top 100 housing enterprises, and other housing enterprises.
On March 2, China Construction News published an article entitled “Rationally Viewing the Sales Data of the Top 100 Real Estate Enterprises”. The article pointed out that recently, some organizations published sales data for the top 100 housing enterprises for February this year. Based on this data alone, it is directly judged that the current overall real estate market trend will be biased, and a comprehensive analysis should be carried out based on the following specific situations.
First, there is an impact of the high base for the same period last year, and the traditional low season for sales in the same period this year.
Second, the sales situation of housing enterprises includes only new homes. With major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, the share of existing housing transactions has increased, and second-hand housing has diverted part of the demand for new housing.
Third, the pattern of the real estate industry has also changed to a certain extent due to the risks of some leading housing enterprises. In terms of sales, the market share of the top 100 housing enterprises has shown a downward trend in recent years, and the sales situation of housing enterprises other than the top 100 is also worth paying attention to.
Therefore, the overall real estate market trend was judged based only on partial data from the top 100 housing enterprises, and the extent of market adjustment was overestimated. Further analysis and judgment should be made based on subsequent statistics reflecting the overall real estate market situation, and comprehensively integrating the situation of new and second-hand housing, the top 100 housing enterprises, and other housing enterprises.
On February 29, China Index Research Institute, Kerui and other organizations announced the sales results of the top 100 housing enterprises for January-February of this year.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in January-February 2024, the total sales of TOP100 housing enterprises was 476.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%. Among the top 100 real estate companies, only Poly Development and Vanke had sales exceeding 30 billion yuan; Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land surpassed the 20 billion yuan mark; and the 10 billion camp was 14, a decrease of 12 from the same period last year.
From January to February 2024, sales of all types of housing enterprises declined. Among them, the average sales of TOP10 real estate enterprises was 21.2 billion yuan, down 47.7% from the previous year; the average sales of TOP11-30 real estate enterprises was 6.58 billion yuan, down 53.5% from the previous year; the average sales value of TOP31-50 real estate enterprises was 3.14 billion yuan, down 52.0% from the previous year; and the average sales of TOP51-100 housing enterprises was 1.4 billion yuan, down 57.6% year on year.
Due to a partial rebound in the 2023 Spring Festival market, the sales base was large, with monthly sales falling 29.3% month-on-month in February. The equity sales volume of TOP100 real estate enterprises was 319.58 billion yuan, and the equity sales area was 19914,000 square meters.
On the same day, Kerui Real Estate Research released a report on the top 100 sales rankings of Chinese real estate companies from January to February 2024.
According to the data, in February 2024, the TOP100 real estate enterprises achieved only a sales transaction amount of 185.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.9% from the previous month and a decrease of 60% from the previous year. The monthly performance scale continued to hit a new low in recent years. In terms of cumulative performance, the top 100 housing enterprises achieved sales transaction amount of 420.91 billion yuan in January-February, an increase of nearly 15 percentage points over January to 48.8%.
Kerry said that in February 2024, the sales threshold for each tier of the top 100 real estate companies was further lowered compared to the same period last year, and the thresholds were all lowered to the lowest level in recent years. Among them, the sales transaction threshold for TOP10 real estate enterprises was reduced by 52% year-on-year to 11.6 billion yuan. The thresholds for TOP30 and TOP50 housing enterprises were also reduced by 48.1% and 49.2% year-on-year, respectively, to 3.24 billion yuan and 1.82 billion yuan. The sales transaction threshold for TOP100 real estate companies was lowered by 38.1% to 700 million yuan.
