NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):NOAH MAY REPORT LARGE YOY INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS
NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):NOAH MAY REPORT LARGE YOY INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS
Although the volatility of equity markets remained quite high in 4Q23, we expect Noah to report large increase in net profit 4Q23, mainly due to relatively low comparison base in 4Q22 and its rapid expansion in overseas business. Noah made contingent litigation expenses of RMB99m due to the first-instance ruling in December 2022. It is less likely that Noah will make such contingent litigation expenses in 4Q23. We expect its adjusted net profit to increase about 60% YoY in 4Q23 and 1% YoY in 2023, against 8.7% YoY decrease in 9M23. Despite high volatility in domestic equity markets, we believe Noah's AUM may be stable in 4Q23, mainly thanks to its rapid expansion in overseas business, further reflecting its strong competitiveness in the wealth management industry. In our view, its overseas net revenue and AUM may continue to report decent growth in 4Q23 and 2024.
尽管股票市场的波动性在23年第四季度仍然很高，但我们预计诺亚将在23年第四季度报告净利润大幅增长，这主要是由于2022年第四季度的比较基础相对较低以及其海外业务的快速扩张。由于2022年12月的一审裁决，诺亚支付了人民币9900万元的或有诉讼费用。诺亚在 23 年第四季度支付此类或有诉讼费用的可能性较小。我们预计，其调整后的净利润将在23年第四季度同比增长约60％，在2023年同比增长1％，而9M23年同比下降8.7％。尽管国内股票市场波动很大，但我们认为诺亚的资产管理规模可能在23年第四季度保持稳定，这主要是由于其海外业务的快速扩张，这进一步反映了其在财富管理行业的强大竞争力。我们认为，其海外净收入和资产管理规模可能会在23年第四季度和2024年继续保持可观的增长。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
Overseas business would continue to grow rapidly in 4Q23. We expect its number of overseas active clients to maintain decent growth in 4Q23 after increasing 78.6% YoY in 3Q23. We expect its overseas net revenue to surge about 80% YoY and accounted for about 60% of its total net revenue in 2023, up from 26.7% in 2022.
海外业务将在23年第四季度继续快速增长。我们预计，其海外活跃客户数量在23年第三季度同比增长78.6％之后，将在23年第四季度保持可观的增长。我们预计其海外净收入将同比增长约80％，占2023年总净收入的60％左右，高于2022年的26.7％。
Overseas AUM may expand decently in 4Q23. As Noah focused on expanding overseas business, we expect its overseas AUM to have increased about 10% YoY in 4Q23 and accounted for about 23% of total AUM as of end December 2023, up from 20.8% as of end December 2022. We expect its AUM may reach RMB156bn at end December 2023, against RMB157.1bn as of end December 2022.
海外资产管理规模可能会在 23 年第四季度大幅扩张。由于诺亚专注于扩大海外业务，我们预计其海外资产管理规模将在2023年第四季度同比增长约10％，占总资产管理规模的约23％，高于2022年12月底的20.8％。我们预计，到2023年12月底，其资产管理规模可能达到1560亿元人民币，而截至2022年12月底为1571亿元人民币。
Dividend payout ratio will increase. Noah will raise its dividend payout ratio to 35% from previous target of 10%, which should bode well for shareholders' interests. In our view, Noah will maintain its competitiveness in China's wealth and asset management market in the next few years.
股息支付率将增加。诺亚将把股息支付率从之前的10％提高到35％，这对股东的利益来说应该是个好兆头。我们认为，诺亚将在未来几年内保持其在中国财富和资产管理市场的竞争力。
Key Risks for Rating
评级的主要风险
Noah might be negatively affected by increasing volatility in the equity markets; risk events in investments such as Camsing incident may negatively affect Noah's value and brand image.
股票市场波动加剧可能会对诺亚产生负面影响；投资中的风险事件，例如Camsing事件，可能会对诺亚的价值和品牌形象产生负面影响。
Valuation
估价
We noted that Chinese equity markets sentiment has improved in recent weeks. Meanwhile, its overseas business may continue to report decent growth in the near future. Noah is now trading at 5.6x 2023E adjusted P/E, which is undervalued. We slightly revised down our target price from US$22.58 to US$22.5, based on 10.7x 2023E adjusted P/E, at about 15% discount to its average forward P/E over the past ten years. Maintain BUY rating.
我们注意到，最近几周，中国股市情绪有所改善。同时，其海外业务在不久的将来可能会继续实现可观的增长。诺亚目前的交易价格为2023年经调整后的市盈率的5.6倍，该市盈率被低估了。根据2023年10.7倍的调整市盈率，我们将目标价格从22.58美元小幅下调至22.5美元，比过去十年的平均远期市盈率折扣了约15％。维持买入评级。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。