Core views
The company's revenue and performance recovery in 2023 was impressive, with significant increases over the same period in 2019.
The company continues to strengthen marketing and product development, accelerate the creation of new products and models, and promote and implement key projects in 2023, such as the Transportation Transformation Center Function Enhancement Project, the Grand Jiuhua Hotel Business Building Renovation Project, and the Wenzong Ancient Village put into operation. It is expected that the future will continue to benefit from improved internal transportation hubs and accessibility, improved external traffic environments, and the implementation and cultivation of newly positioned new incremental projects, etc., and is expected to have high-quality growth in the context of steady demand.
occurrences
The company's 2023 performance forecast predicts that net profit due to mother will be 175 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 189 million yuan compared with the same period last year, turning a loss into a profit.
Brief review
Remarkable performance recovery, continuous strengthening of marketing and products
The company expects to achieve operating income of 723 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 118% over the previous year, achieve net profit of 175 million yuan to the mother, and reverse losses. Net profit deducted from mother is estimated to be 166 million yuan, an increase of 190 million yuan compared with the same period last year; the company's estimated revenue for 2023 will increase by about 34.6% compared to the same period in 2019, and net profit to mother will increase by about 49.5% compared to the same period in 2019, all of which have achieved significant increases compared to before the pandemic, and the overall performance is impressive. The 2023 tourism market recovered rapidly, and the company continued to strengthen marketing promotion and product service quality improvement, driving significant growth in business performance. According to the Jiuhuashan Scenic Area Management Committee, the Jiuhuashan Scenic Area received 9.2518 million visitors in 2023, an increase of 16.63%, achieving tourism revenue of 112 billion yuan, an increase of 13.61%, and completing the annual target tasks. Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.9%, ranking first in the city, 4.5 percentage points higher than the city average. In 2023, the company will actively focus on revenue growth and loss reduction, adjust the income and expenditure structure and new business format plans according to the company's break-even point; accelerate hotel transformation, create personalized “hotel+” products and diversify entertainment activities; stabilize stocks, carry out segmented marketing promotions such as medical treatment, leisure and vacation, conferences and exhibitions, and explore the layout of night tours, night shopping and nighttime entertainment; and the core is asset-light, such as innovative vegetarian products, cultural and creative product development, and helping the transformation of agricultural and side souvenirs.
It also comprehensively promoted marketing and achieved good results.
The future will benefit from new transportation infrastructure and high-quality positioning products to open up incremental space. In the future, the company will still benefit from improved transportation and infrastructure convenience, as well as incremental projects with different forms and contents under the new cultural positioning, and growth can still be expected. Mount Jiuhua is one of the top four famous Buddhist mountains in China. Based on the current judgment, tourism is increasingly becoming a much-needed product to meet consumers' spiritual needs, and demand is expected to be highly resilient. At the same time, the company's transportation conversion center function improvement project was launched at the end of 2022, and it will be actively promoted within 2023. By the 2023 semi-annual report, civil construction projects for parking buildings and ground parking lots will be completed, and the visitor service center renovation and expansion project will be promoted. It is expected that issues such as accessibility and parking restrictions will be significantly improved after operation. The Chihuang High Speed Rail is expected to be opened within the year to boost transportation convenience, and passenger traffic appeal to central China is expected to increase. In addition, the company is also actively promoting the construction of other key projects. The Wenzong Ancient Village project was successfully completed and put into operation within 2023, forming an integrated development pattern covering various business formats such as village-style hotels, idyllic flowers, forest crossing, and leisure experiences.
Completed the construction of the Grand Jiuhua Hotel business building renovation project and put it into operation. Advance all preliminary work of the Lion Rock Project in an orderly manner. It is expected that, combined with the company's cultural attributes and the appeal of the new positioning, it will continue to do a good job in project planning. In the future, it will still benefit from factors such as landing and cultivation of key projects and incremental space for new projects, as well as improved traffic around the city.
Investment advice: It is predicted that the company will achieve net profit of 175 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 220 million yuan from 2023 to 2025. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 21X, 19X, and 17X, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk analysis
1. The company's key construction and investment projects in recent years, such as Wenzong Ancient Village, hotels, etc. may fall short of expectations, which may affect the space for future incremental passenger flow. The market recognition of innovative tourism and cultural products has yet to be verified, and there is still an uncertain risk of market acceptance; 2. If the transportation conversion center function improvement project falls short of expectations, it will affect the implementation of accessibility and may cause passenger flow bottlenecks; 3. As the consumer environment improves, the increase in the supply and leisure market may bring about competition and passenger flow diversion in the current domestic tourism industry. The direction and effects of the transformation of leisure and vacation in natural scenic spots have yet to be verified.