The company is positioned as a light commercial vehicle market leader and Ford's high-performance product provider, and sales and profits are recovering steadily: Ford Motor holds 32% of the company's shares and is the second largest shareholder of the company. Unlike other automobile joint ventures, the main entities of Jiangling Motor's listed companies are Sino-foreign joint ventures. Currently, the company's JMC brand products include light trucks, pickups, and light buses, and Ford brand products include light buses, MPVs and SUVs.
The company's total sales volume in 2022 was 282,000 units, down 17.3% year on year. Mainly affected by the sharp decline in the domestic commercial vehicle market, the company's light truck and light passenger business was dragged down, and sales recovered in 2023. In terms of net profit attributable to mother, since bottoming out in 2018, it has benefited from export-driven sales growth and a steady recovery from falling raw material costs.
High-performance off-road and pickup truck products are being launched one after another, entering the incremental market segment: hardcore off-road vehicles are high-performance off-road vehicles that can drive on rough terrain. Currently, the domestic market has a small hardcore off-road audience, but sales have increased significantly, mainly due to the rapid launch of localized models and the rise of emerging lifestyles such as camping. Currently, domestic models are mainly Beijing 40, Tank 300, Tank 500, and Great Wall H9. Pickup trucks use a sedan front and cab, and are also models with open truck compartments. Currently, various domestic documents are being issued to lift restrictions on pickups entering the city. The playful nature of pickups is gradually increasing, and sales of high-end pickups are expected to grow rapidly in the future. The company followed the trend and launched the Ford Ranger off-road pickup truck and the hardcore off-road model Bronco to accurately break into the incremental market segment.
The company is a leader in the light commercial vehicle industry. New models continue to deploy new energy and accelerate transformation: in 2022, domestic light bus production reached 313,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4%. Among them, Jiangling Motor's share reached 24% and ranked first. Positive growth is expected throughout 2023 as pandemic disruptions lessen and macroeconomic recovery recovers. The company launched a pure electric version of the Ford Transit T8, and sales are expected to continue to grow.
Jiangling Ford Transit T8 established new standards for light passenger vehicles in multiple dimensions, is an industry leader in the field of special vehicle modification, and has entered the field of special vehicle modification such as ambulances and police cars. In June 2023, the company released the Jiangling Lexing New Energy Brand and launched the benchmark pure electric light truck Jiangling Lexing E Rudder. The transformation of new energy was accelerated.
Exports+commercial vehicles+electric vehicles have become Ford's new driving force in China. The company's low valuation expectations are significantly different: along with increased competition in the domestic market and slow change of joint venture models, Ford's sales in China have declined rapidly since 2016. In May 2023, the CEO of Ford Motor Company stated that Ford will develop a less invested, more streamlined, more focused, and higher-return business in China. The focus of its new strategy will be commercial vehicle business, electric vehicle, and export business. Jiangling Motors is highly in line with Ford's strategy in China. As of December 2023, the company's PE was only 14.29 times higher, significantly lower than the passenger car industry (26.7X) and light trucks and commercial buses (75.2X), with a significant difference in expectations.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue to reach 337, 441, and 50 billion yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, up 12%, 32%, and 14% year on year, while net profit to mother will reach 14.8, 18.4, and 2.21 billion yuan respectively, up 61%, 24%, and 20% year on year.
Risk warning: New technology applications fall short of expectations, increased risk of industry competition, risk of rising raw material prices, etc.