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US stock outlook | PCE data is in line with expectations, and the three major futures indices are rising in the short term; multiple stocks announced results, Snowflake fell nearly 23% before the market, and C3.ai rose nearly 15%

Futu News · Feb 29 21:23

全球宏观

周四盘前，美股三大期指短线拉升，美国1月PCE数据符合预期

美国1月核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，为2021年3月以来最小增幅

美国1月核心PCE物价指数环比上升0.4%，创2023年2月以来最大增幅，预估为0.4%，前值为0.2%；美国1月核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，为2021年3月以来最小增幅，预估为2.8%，前值为2.9%。

“新美联储通讯社”：沃勒的影响力正在不断上升，可能成为下一任美联储主席

当地时间周三，有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文表示，美国前总统特朗普任命的美联储理事沃勒的影响力正在不断上升，甚至有可能成为下一任美联储主席。Timiraos指出，正是沃勒两年前挑战正统经济学的行为，使得他在美联储之中的影响力日益上升。

芯片业存在缺水隐患！标普警告：或会扰乱供应链

本周，标准普尔全球评级在一份报告中写道，随着半导体加工技术的进步，半导体制造商将面临水资源短缺的风险。该报告指出，在产能扩张和先进工艺技术需求的推动下，半导体行业的用水量正以每年中高个位数的速度增长，供水有限可能会带来产量波动，从而影响全球科技供应链。

高盛技术分析专家：看不到美股见顶迹象

据媒体报道，高盛的技术专家Scott Rubner表示，当前欣欣向荣的美国股市不可能见顶。Rubner在给客户的一份报告中表示，散户涌入刺激了股市反弹，恰逢“金发姑娘”行情，促使分析师们上调美股的年终目标。此前，Rubner根据季节性模式曾预测美股将在2月下旬出现回调。

Piper Sandler：美股反弹幅度不够大，技术面有压力

Piper Sandler的首席市场技术分析师Craig Johnson表示，美国股市很快就会出现10%的回调，这是由于市场上出现了一些技术信号，这些信号表明股市还没有准备好进一步上涨。Johnson周三表示：“在从2023年10月的低点大幅上涨之后，三大基准股指均处于过去18个月价格区间的上端，这一迹象表明，股市可能很快就会回落。”

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前普涨

英伟达内部人士加大抛售力度，最新财报披露后已套现8000万美元

随着$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$持续飙升，其内部人士加大了股票抛售力度。根据这家公司向美国证券交易委员会提交的Form4文件，上周财报公布后，英伟达董事出售了99000股，创9月份以来单月新高，总价值约8000万美元。截至发稿，英伟达盘前涨超1%。

Meta遭八个欧盟消费者团体投诉，指其收集用户数据违反隐私规则

周四，$Meta Platforms (META.US)$再一次遭到投诉，8个欧盟消费者团体要求监管机构对这家采取行动，理由是该公司在收集用户数据时违反了欧盟关于用户隐私的规定。截至发稿，Meta盘前涨近1%。

Snowflake盘前暴跌近23%，下一财季指引不及预期，CEO宣布离职

云计算巨头$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$Q4营收7.75亿美元，同比增长32%，好于分析师普遍预期的7.59亿美元；每股亏损0.51美元，市场普遍预计每股亏损0.73美元；预计下一财季产品营收在7.45-7.5亿美元间，逊于分析师普遍预计的7.59亿美元。此外，据媒体报道，该公司原CEO Frank Slootman决定离职，但仍将继续担任董事会主席。截至发稿，Snowflake盘前暴跌近23%。

C3.ai盘前大涨近15%！第三财季财报超预期，上调全年营收指引

$C3.ai (AI.US)$第三财季营收同比增长17.6%至7840.1万美元，高于市场普遍预计的7613.5万美元；经调整每股亏损0.13美元，华尔街普遍预测每股亏损0.28美元；上调全年营收预期为3.06亿至3.1亿美元，高于分析师普遍预计的3.06亿美元。截至发稿，C3.a1盘前大涨近15%。

赛富时盘前一度跌超2%，Q4财报超预期，但财年指引逊于预期

$赛富时 (CRM.US)$Q4营收92.9亿美元，同比增长11%，好于市场预期的92.2亿美元；每股收益1.47美元，高于市场预期值1.28美元；预计本财年营收至多为380亿美元，增长约9%，分析师普遍预测为386亿美元。赛富时盘前一度跌超2%，截至发稿，该股跌幅收窄。

Okta盘前涨近24%，Q4经调整净利润大超预期

网络安全公司$Okta (OKTA.US)$Q4营收6.05亿美元，同比增长19%，市场预期值为5.88亿美元；经调整净利润1.13亿美元，去年同期为5200万美元。截至发稿，Okta盘前大涨近24%。

“美国新东方”多邻国盘前大涨超21%，Q4财报超预期

“美国新东方”$多邻国 (DUOL.US)$Q4营收同比增长45%至1.51亿美元，高于分析师预期1.48亿美元；每股收益0.26美元，高于分析师预期的每股收益0.04美元，去年同期每股亏损0.35美元。截至发稿，多邻国盘前大涨超21%。

数字货币概念股多数上涨

聚焦中概股

热门中概股多数上涨

网易盘前跌约2%，Q4财报不及预期

$网易 (NTES.US)$Q4营收271.4亿元，同比增长7%，逊于市场预期的282.9亿元；归属于公司股东净利润为65.8亿元，同比增长67%，环比减少16%，低于市场预期的68.5亿元人民币。截至发稿，网易盘前跌约2%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

21:30 美国1月个人支出月率/美国1月核心PCE物价指数月率/美国1月核心PCE物价指数年率/美国至2月24日当周初请失业金人数(万人)

22:45 美国2月芝加哥PMI

23:00 美国1月成屋签约销售指数月率

23:30 美国至2月23日当周EIA天然气库存(亿立方英尺)

23:50 2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克发表讲话

次日0:00 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比就货币政策发表讲话

2:15 2024年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就金融稳定和监管发表讲话

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编辑/tolk

Global macroscopic

Before the Thursday market, the three major US stock indices rallied in the short term. The US PCE data for January was in line with expectations

The US core PCE price index rose 2.8% year on year in January, the smallest increase since March 2021

The US core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, the biggest increase since February 2023, estimated at 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.2%; the US core PCE price index rose 2.8% year on year in January, the smallest increase since March 2021. It is estimated to be 2.8%, compared to the previous value of 2.9%.

“New Federal Reserve News Agency”: Waller's influence is rising, and he may become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve

On Wednesday local time, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” recently wrote that the influence of US Federal Reserve Governor Waller, appointed by former US President Trump, is rising and may even become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Timiraos pointed out that it was Waller's act of challenging orthodox economics two years ago that made him increasingly influential in the Federal Reserve.

There is a risk of water shortage in the chip industry! S&P warns: It could disrupt the supply chain

This week, S&P Global Ratings wrote in a report that as semiconductor processing technology advances, semiconductor manufacturers will face the risk of water scarcity. The report points out that, driven by the expansion of production capacity and demand for advanced process technology, the semiconductor industry's water consumption is growing at a medium to high single-digit rate every year, and limited water supply may cause fluctuations in production, thereby affecting the global technology supply chain.

Goldman Sachs Technical Analyst: There is no sign that US stocks are peaking

According to media reports, Goldman Sachs technical expert Scott Rubner said that the current thriving US stock market is unlikely to peak. Rubner said in a report to clients that the influx of retail investors spurred a rebound in the stock market, coinciding with the “Goldilocks” market, which prompted analysts to raise their year-end targets for US stocks. Previously, Rubner predicted a correction in US stocks in late February based on a seasonal pattern.

Piper Sandler: The rebound in US stocks is not large enough, and there is pressure on the technical side

Craig Johnson, chief market technical analyst at Piper Sandler, said that the US stock market will soon experience a 10% correction. This is due to some technical signals in the market that indicate that the stock market is not ready to rise further. Johnson said on Wednesday: “After a sharp rise from a low in October 2023, all three benchmark indices are at the upper end of the price range of the past 18 months. This is an indication that the stock market may soon retreat.”

Hot news

Star Technology's stock generally rose before the market

Nvidia insiders have stepped up their sell-off efforts and have already cashed out $80 million after the latest financial report was revealed

With$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It continued to soar, and its insiders stepped up the sell-off of stocks. According to the company's Form 4 documents submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, after the announcement of the earnings report last week, Nvidia directors sold 99,000 shares, a monthly high since September, with a total value of about 80 million US dollars. As of press time, Nvidia is up more than 1% in the premarket.

Meta has been sued by eight EU consumer groups, alleging that its collection of user data violates privacy rules

On Thursday,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$After another complaint, eight EU consumer groups asked regulators to take action against the company on the grounds that the company violated EU regulations on user privacy when collecting user data. As of press time, Meta is up nearly 1% in the premarket.

Snowflake plummeted nearly 23% before the market, and guidance for the next fiscal quarter fell short of expectations, and the CEO announced his departure

Cloud computing giants$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$Q4 revenue was US$775 million, up 32% year over year, better than analysts' general expectations of US$759 million; loss per share was US$0.51, and the market generally expected a loss of $0.73 per share; product revenue for the next fiscal quarter is expected to be between US$745 to US$750 million, which is lower than analysts' general estimate of US$759 million. Furthermore, according to media reports, Frank Slootman, the company's former CEO, has decided to step down, but will continue to serve as chairman of the board of directors. As of press time, Snowflake plummeted nearly 23% in the premarket.

C3.ai surged nearly 15% before the market! The financial report for the third fiscal quarter exceeded expectations, and the full-year revenue guidance was raised

$C3.ai (AI.US)$Revenue for the third fiscal quarter increased 17.6% year over year to US$74.01 million, higher than the market's general forecast of US$76.135 million; after adjustment, a loss of $0.13 per share, Wall Street generally predicted a loss of $0.28 per share; and raised the full-year revenue forecast to US$306 million to US$310 million, higher than analysts' general estimate of US$306 million. As of press release, C3.a1 surged nearly 15% in the premarket.

Saifu fell more than 2% before the market. The Q4 earnings report exceeded expectations, but the fiscal year guidance fell short of expectations

$Salesforce (CRM.US)$Q4 revenue was US$9.29 billion, up 11% year on year, better than market expectations of US$9.22 billion; earnings per share were US$1.47, higher than market expectations of US$1.28; revenue for the current fiscal year is expected to be up to US$38 billion, up about 9%, and analysts generally forecast US$38.6 billion. Saifu fell more than 2% before the market. As of press time, the stock's decline had narrowed.

Okta rose nearly 24% before the market, and Q4 adjusted net profit greatly exceeded expectations

cybersecurity company$Okta (OKTA.US)$Q4 revenue was US$605 million, up 19% year on year, with market expectations of US$588 million; adjusted net profit of US$113 million, compared to US$52 million in the same period last year. As of press time, Okta surged nearly 24% in the premarket.

“America's New Orient” surged more than 21% in the pre-market, and Q4 earnings exceeded expectations

“America's New East”$Duolingo (DUOL.US)$Q4 revenue increased 45% year over year to US$151 million, higher than analysts' expectations of US$148 million; earnings per share of $0.26, higher than analysts' expectations of US$0.04 per share, and loss of $0.35 per share in the same period last year. As of press release, many neighboring countries surged more than 21% in the premarket.

Most digital currency concept stocks rose

Focus on China Securities

Most of the popular securities in China rose

NetEase fell about 2% before the market, and Q4 earnings fell short of expectations

$NetEase (NTES.US)$Q4 revenue was 27.14 billion yuan, up 7% year on year, lower than market expectations of 28.29 billion yuan; net profit attributable to the company's shareholders was 6.58 billion yuan, up 67% year over year, down 16% month on month, lower than market expectations of 6.85 billion yuan. As of press time, NetEase fell about 2% before the market.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

21:30 Monthly rate of US personal expenditure in January/Monthly rate of US Core PCE Price Index/Annual rate of US Core PCE Price Index/Number of US jobless claims for the week up to February 24 (10,000 people)

22:45 US February Chicago PMI

23:00 Monthly rate of existing home contract sales index in the US in January

23:30 US EIA gas inventory for the week from February 23 to February 23 (100 million cubic feet)

23:50 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered speeches

At 0:00 the next day, the 2025 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered a speech on monetary policy

2:15 2024 FOMC and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester delivered a speech on financial stability and regulation

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editor/tolk

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