新船价格保持高位，各船型分化明显。新船价格自21 年以来开始加速上涨，2022年，新造船价格保持上涨趋势，2023 年以来船板等原材料价格有所回落，但船厂手持订单充足，新造船市场仍处于卖方市场，新造船价格走势趋于平稳但仍处于高位。从主力船型看，截至2024 年1 月，干散货船、油船和集装箱船新船价格指数同比分别上涨5.6%、7.7%和3.5%；综合来看中国新造船价格指数同比上涨5.2%，收于1070 点。Recommended logic: 1. The global shipbuilding cycle is booming, new ship prices remain high, and ship types are clearly differentiated.
As of January 2024, the new ship price index for dry bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships increased by 5.6%, 7.7%, and 3.5%, respectively. 2. Production capacity was cleared, and the number of active shipyards continued to decline. By the end of 2022, the number of active shipyards in the world was only 366, a year-on-year decrease of 66, a decrease of 64% compared with 1,014 during the peak period.
3. Increased market share in China and increased share of high value-added ships. China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders received, and handheld orders each accounted for 50.2% and 66.6% of the world's total volume in terms of DWT. For the first time, the market share all exceeded 50%, up 2.9 and 11.4 pp from 2022, respectively.
The price of new ships remains high, and there is a clear differentiation among ship types. The price of new ships has been rising at an accelerated pace since '21. In 2022, prices for new shipbuilding have maintained an upward trend. Prices of raw materials such as ship boards have declined somewhat since 2023, but shipyards are holding sufficient orders, the new shipbuilding market is still in the seller's market, and the price trend of new shipbuilding has stabilized but is still high. Looking at the main ship types, as of January 2024, the new ship price index for dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships rose 5.6%, 7.7%, and 3.5% year on year, respectively; overall, China's new shipbuilding price index rose 5.2% year on year to close at 1,070 points.
Production capacity has been cleared over the years, and the number of active shipyards continues to decline. The China Shipbuilding Industry Association predicts that the recovery of the world economy will still face many challenges in the second half of the year, and the international shipping market will continue to be in a downward adjustment range, but the introduction of the “2023 International Maritime Organization Ship Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategy” will push the global shipping and shipbuilding industry to accelerate the decarbonization and emission reduction process, which will have a positive effect on the new shipbuilding market. However, by the end of 2022, the number of active global shipyards (with at least 1,000 GT or more handheld orders) was only 366, a decrease of 66 compared to the peak period of 1,014.
China's market share has increased, and the share of high value-added ships has increased. In 2023, China's shipbuilding market share will continue to lead the world, and shipbuilding indicators will grow across the board. According to data from the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in 2023, China's position as a major shipbuilding power was further consolidated, and its market share has ranked first in the world for 14 consecutive years. China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders received, and handheld orders accounted for 50.2% and 66.6% of the world's total volume in terms of DWT, respectively. For the first time, the market share all exceeded 50%, up 2.9 and 11.4 pp from 2022, respectively.
Low-cost shipping orders have been delivered one after another, and the company continues to improve quality and efficiency. Since the company accrued an inventory impairment of 860 million yuan for newly built ship models such as large liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, new floating production and storage tankers (FPSO), and some container ships, according to preliminary estimates by the company's finance department, it is estimated that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be -800 million yuan to -740 million yuan in 2023. With the relatively low price civil ship construction orders that the company undertook in previous years being delivered one after another, and at the same time, the company strengthened key cycle compliance management for main ship construction models and made every effort to ensure timely delivery of ships and improve production efficiency, and the company's future profitability will continue to improve.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be -780 million yuan, 2.74 billion yuan, and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS of -0.03 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively. We believe that the company continues to build its core competitiveness, and its profitability is expected to be further improved. For the first time, we recommend continuing to pay attention.
Risk warning: exchange rate risk, cost risk, customer risk, etc.
