occurrences
Recently, the company released the 2023 performance report. The company's operating performance in 2023 was excellent. The company achieved revenue of 14.95 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 21.3% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 2.0 billion yuan, an increase of 21.6% over the previous year. Among them, 2023Q4 revenue was 7.46 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mother was 970 million yuan, and non-net profit deducted from mother was 90 million yuan.
Comment:
The return on investment is stable and sustainable. As of the third quarter report of 2023, the company's investment income was 890 million yuan. In December 2023, the company transferred Xiangyu New Energy and Tongzhao New Energy, and is expected to achieve profits of 419 million yuan and 305 million yuan respectively, totaling 724 million yuan, which accounts for a high proportion of net profit in Q4. The company implements a rolling development plan for wind farms, implements the strategy of “developing one batch, transferring one batch, and owning one batch”, and transfers wind farms in due course according to demand-side conditions. The company's sale of wind farms is one of the company's regular businesses. In fact, it is a way for the company to sell fans and undertake EPC business. It will also be one of the company's main sustainable businesses in the future. The company will explore a new business model around this business.
The company's fan sales achieved relatively rapid growth. According to Fengmang Energy, the company won a total of about 13.5 GW of bids in 2023, ranking fourth among Chinese machine builders; according to BNEF, the company added about 7.8 GW of hoisting capacity in 2023, with a market share of 10%. Compared with the company's sales capacity of 4.5 GW in 2022.
The launch of new offshore wind power products may usher in a sales breakthrough. At the 2023 Wind Energy Exhibition, the company unveiled the world's largest onshore 15MW wind turbine and 13/16MW offshore wind turbine, continuing to break through the development path of large megawatt units. Among them, the company has been able to equip the 15MW wind turbine with a self-designed generator and blades. The company has now set up a marine marketing team mainly located north of the Yangtze River and has begun participating in the bidding for offshore projects. The company expects the gross margin of offshore projects to be higher than onshore.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's 2023-2025 net profit to be 20.0, 24.2, and 2.87 billion yuan, respectively, up 21.6%, 20.7%, and 18.8% year-on-year. The market value as of February 26 corresponds to the 24-25 PE of 13.2 and 11.1 times, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk factors: Risk of wind power development falling short of expectations, risk of fluctuating raw material prices, risk of increased industry competition.