Key points of investment:
Incident: Furander released its 2023 performance report. The company achieved net profit of 417 million yuan, an increase of 36.78% over the same period of the previous year, and achieved net profit of 391 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, an increase of 39.02% over the same period of the previous year, and the performance exceeded expectations.
Car sales increased in January, and demand is expected to remain high in the future. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile sales reached 2,439 million units in January '24, up 47.9% from the same period last year. Of these, sales of new energy vehicles were 729,000 units, up 78.8% from the same period last year, and the sales growth rate remained high.
The fourth meeting of the Central Committee on Finance and Economics held on the afternoon of February 23 stated that on the demand side, trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances should be encouraged, and the trade-in of durable consumer goods should be promoted. On the supply side of transportation logistics, the starting point is to reduce logistics costs. The main method is to adjust the structure and promote reforms to effectively reduce transportation costs, storage costs, and management costs. Driven by policy, it is expected that the future demand-side growth rate of durable consumer goods such as automobiles will exceed expectations, and the boom in terminal orders will quickly spread to related logistics companies. As an excellent third-party automotive sheet logistics supply chain solution provider in China, Furander is expected to benefit from policy driving.
Combining the company's 2023 performance report and maintaining a “buy” rating: Combined with the company's 2023 performance report, considering policy drivers such as a high increase in automobile sales and a reduction in logistics costs for the whole society, the Furan Demetai effect will continue to be prominent. Due to the optimization of steel procurement costs, transmission to the quotation side, the company's revenue declined in '23. At the same time, the company actively adjusted its end customer strategy, and overall gross margin improved, so actual net profit to mother in '23 increased slightly compared to the original forecast value. Based on this, we raised our 23-year profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated to be 417 million yuan (originally assumed to be 414 million yuan), which is 14 times the corresponding PE. Maintaining the 24-25 profit forecast, the company's 2024E-2025E net profit is estimated to be $566 million and 719 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 10/8 times. Maintain Flemish's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Major customer automobile production and sales fall short of expectations; steel prices fluctuate greatly; production safety accidents; integrated die-casting capacity utilization falls short of expectations.