Founded in 1998, Antu Biotech focuses on R&D, manufacturing, integration and service of in vitro diagnostic reagents and instruments. IVD has a comprehensive layout and multiple efforts. The company became the first domestic in vitro diagnostic R&D and manufacturing enterprise listed on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016. The company's products cover immunological, microbiological, biochemical, molecular, coagulation and other testing fields, and can provide comprehensive product solutions and overall services for medical laboratories. Currently, it is one of the manufacturers with strong comprehensive strength in China.
The company has grown rapidly in recent years and has risen strongly. The company's revenue increased from 1,400 million yuan in 2017 to 4.442 billion yuan in 2022, the 5-year CAGR was 25.98%, and net profit to mother increased from 447 million yuan in 2017 to 1,167 million yuan in 2022, and the 5-year CAGR was 21.16%. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's net profit to mother was 901 million yuan, surpassing the data for the same period of 2022.
According to the Sullivan report, China's IVD market is estimated to be about 219.8 billion yuan in 2025, with an average compound growth rate of 15.38% in 2020-2025, which is faster than the overall medical device market. The share of in vitro diagnosis in China's total medical device market is expected to increase from 14.7% in 2020 to 17.9% in 2025.
In December 2023, the Anhui Provincial Health Insurance Bureau took the lead in launching an inter-provincial alliance collection of in vitro diagnostic reagents from 25 provinces (districts and military corps). This collection mainly focused on the fields of molecular diagnosis and immunodiagnosis. Representatives of more than 130 enterprises participated in the price declaration. In this collection, the average drop in corporate quotations was 53.9%. The eight infectious diseases with the largest procurement volume and amount (chemiluminescence method) dropped the highest by 65.2%, the lowest drop was 50.01%, and the average drop was 54.14%. Importing companies such as Abbott and Roche, as well as leading domestic companies such as Mindray, Antu, and New Industries, are all proposed to be selected with a drop of more than 50%. In the group of eight infectious diseases collected in 25 provinces, Antu Biotech became the domestic diagnostic reagent manufacturer with the highest share of winning bids with 78.12 million winning bids, and also won the highest number of successful bids in this collection.
Profit forecast. We expect the company's EPS to be 2.05, 2.66, and 3.20 yuan respectively in 23-25, and the net profit growth rates of 3.1%, 29.5%, and 20.4%, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations and considering the company's high prosperity and leading position in the IVD industry, we gave the company 25-32 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 51.30-65.67 yuan, and gave it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The risk of valuation fluctuations, collection price reductions falling short of expectations, overseas development falling short of expectations, etc.