YANCOAL AUSTRALIA(3668.HK):DECLINE IN 2023 NET PROFIT LARGELY EXPECTED; VALUATION TO BE SUPPORTED BY ATTRACTIVE YIELD
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA(3668.HK):DECLINE IN 2023 NET PROFIT LARGELY EXPECTED; VALUATION TO BE SUPPORTED BY ATTRACTIVE YIELD
YAL's net profit in 2023 came in at A$1.82bn, down 49% YoY but 5% above the consensus estimates. We are encouraged that YAL achieved >20% YoY unit cost reduction in 2H23, on the back of accelerated volume growth (3Q23: +28% YoY; 4Q23: +46% YoY). YAL declared final dividend (fully franked) of A$0.325/share. This, together with the interim dividend, implies a full-year payout ratio of 50.5% and ~13% yield based on the current price. We only slightly revise our NPV-based TP to HK$40 (from HK$42), as we have not trimmed our LT coal price assumptions (starting 2026E) despite resetting the earnings forecast in 2024E/25E (-38%/-49%) on lower coal price. The stock is still trading at <6x 2024E P/E under our new earnings forecast. Maintain BUY.
YAL在2023年的淨利潤爲18.2億澳元，同比下降49％，但比市場普遍預期高出5％。我們感到鼓舞的是，在銷量加速增長（23年第三季度：同比增長28％；23年第四季度：同比增長46％）的支持下，YAL在23年下半年實現了超過20％的單位成本同比降低。YAL宣佈末期股息（全額支付）爲每股0.325澳元。加上中期股息，這意味着全年派息率爲50.5％，按當前價格計算，收益率約爲13％。儘管由於煤炭價格下跌重置了2024E/25E的收益預測（-38％/-49％），但我們仍未下調LT煤炭價格假設（從2026年開始），因此我們僅略微調整了基於淨資產淨值的目標值至40港元（從2026年開始）。根據我們新的收益預測，該股的市盈率仍低於2024年的6倍。維持買入。
Key highlights on 2023 results. Revenue dropped 26% YoY to A$7.8bn, as the 13% YoY coal sales volume growth (to 33.1mt) was more than offset by the 39% YoY decline in blended coal ASP (to A$232/t). EBIT declined 52% to A$2.6bn due to operating de-leveraging. On the positive side, finance expenses substantially decreased 89% YoY to only A$53mn. Net profit dropped 49% YoY to A$1.82bn. In 2H23, revenue/net profit dropped 34%/54% YoY to A$3.8bn/A$846mn. As at end-2023, YAL had net cash of A$1.25bn, equivalent to ~15% of the current market cap.
2023 年業績的主要亮點。收入同比下降26％，至78億澳元，原因是煤炭銷售量同比增長13％（至331萬噸）被混合煤ASP同比下降39％（至232澳元）所抵消。由於去槓桿化運營，息稅前利潤下降了52％，至26億澳元。從積極的方面來看，財務支出同比大幅下降了89％，至僅5300萬澳元。淨利潤同比下降49％，至18.2億澳元。在23年下半年，收入/淨利潤同比下降34％/54％，至38億澳元/8.46億澳元。截至2023年底，YAL的淨現金爲12.5億澳元，相當於當前市值的約15％。
Reduction of unit cost in 2H23. Based on our calculation, the unit cash cost (excluding royalties) increased 2% YoY to A$100/t in 2023. This implies that the unit cost was reduced 24% YoY to A$86/t in 2H23. The cost reduction was helped by production volume recovery (+37% YoY in 2H23).
在 23 年下半年降低單位成本。根據我們的計算，2023年單位現金成本（不包括特許權使用費）同比增長2％，達到100澳元/噸。這意味着在23年下半年，單位成本同比下降了24％，至86澳元/噸。產量回升（23年下半年同比增長37％）推動了成本降低。
2024E guidance: (1) Attributable saleable production: 35-39mn tonnes (up 5%-17% YoY); (2) operating cash cost (excluding royalties): A$89-97/t (-7% to +1% YoY); (3) capex: A$650-800mn (up 5%-29% YoY)
2024E指導：（1）可歸屬可售產量：3,500萬至3900萬噸（同比增長5％-17％）；（2）運營現金成本（不包括特許權使用費）：89-97澳元（同比下降7％至+1％）；（3）資本支出：6.5億至8億澳元（同比增長5％-29％）
Key risks: (1) further decline in coal price; (2) rebound of unit cost; (3) unfavourable weather that affects production.
主要風險：（1）煤炭價格進一步下跌；（2）單位成本反彈；（3）影響產量的不利天氣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。