Core views
The company released its 2023 performance report: it is expected to achieve revenue of 2,026 billion yuan, +31.9% year on year; net profit to mother of 520 million yuan, -2.4% year over year; net profit after deduction of 535 million yuan, +3.8% year on year. Looking at Q4 alone, revenue was 618 million yuan, +2.9% yoy, +80.1% month-on-month; net profit to mother was 105 million yuan, -38.7% YoY, +56.1% month-on-month; net profit after deduction was 154 million yuan, -7.0% YoY, +217.6% month-on-month. The Q4 performance exceeded expectations. It was determined that the main business remained profitable, mainly relying on energy storage/photovoltaic power generation systems to contribute revenue and profit, and there may be some changes on the cost side. With the recovery in demand in the European household optical storage market and the further elimination of inventories, 24 is expected to usher in a further improvement in shipments.
occurrences
The company released its 2023 performance report: it is expected to achieve revenue of 2,026 billion yuan, +31.9%; net profit to mother of 520 million yuan, -2.4% year over year; net profit after deduction of 535 million yuan, +3.8% year over year; weighted average ROE of 8.10%, -0.51 pct year on year.
Looking at Q4 alone, revenue was 618 million yuan, +2.9% yoy, +80.1% month-on-month; net profit to mother was 105 million yuan, -38.7% YoY, +56.1% month-on-month; net profit after deduction was 154 million yuan, -7.0% YoY, +217.6% month-on-month.
Brief review
1. The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations. It was determined that the main business remained profitable, mainly relying on energy storage/photovoltaic power generation systems to contribute revenue and profit, and there may be some changes on the cost side.
2. In addition, in 2023, due to the termination of implementation of the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan, the amount of the calculated share payment fee was not refunded. The share payment fees that should have been confirmed during the remaining waiting period were accelerated in 2023. The equity incentive expenses involved in 2022 and 2023 were 1,056 million yuan and 107.56 million yuan respectively. After adding this influence, net profit to the mother should be 543 million yuan and 628 million yuan respectively. The growth rate remained steady, up 15.54% year-on-year in 2023.
3. Looking at the company's main business, shipping performance in the second half of 23 was worse than in the first half of the year due to inventory. We believe that along with the recovery in demand in the European household optical storage market and the further elimination of inventories, 24 is expected to usher in further improvements in shipments.
Profit forecast and suggestions: We expect the company's 2023-2025 results to be 5.2, 7.1 billion yuan, and 90 billion yuan, with corresponding valuations of 34.0, 24.7, and 19.7X, respectively, continuing the “buy” rating
Risk analysis
1. The photovoltaic and energy storage industry is less prosperous than expected risk: The solar photovoltaic and energy storage industry is highly correlated with the macroeconomic situation and national industrial policy. If the economy or industrial policies of major markets change significantly in the future, and PV installations fall short of expectations, it will affect the development of the industry and the growth rate of the company's revenue and profit to a certain extent;
2. Risk that component costs will continue to rise: IGBT supply may continue to be tight, and the shortage of raw materials will drive up the cost of downstream inverters, thereby limiting the pace of inverter shipments.
3. Industry competition intensifies risks: The slight reverse development trend is good. Inverter leaders are entering the market one after another with channel advantages, the production capacity of existing enterprises continues to expand, industry competition intensifies, and the company's business performance may be affected.
4. Risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuation: Affected by the increase in foreign currency to RMB exchange rate, RMB exchange rate fluctuations in 2024 are highly uncertain and may affect the company's revenue and profitability.