Incident: The company released its 2023 annual results report, with revenue of 14.9 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 21%; net profit to mother was 2.0 billion yuan, an increase of 22%. Among them, 2023Q4 revenue was 7.46 billion yuan, 25%/109% YoY; net profit to mother was 972 million yuan, 61%/355% YoY. The performance exceeded market expectations.
23Q4 fan shipments exceeded expectations. We expect to ship 9-10GW in 24, an increase of 20% over the same period. We expect the company's fan shipments to be 7.5-8GW in 2023, an increase of about 67%-78%. Of these, Q4 shipments are 4GW+, which doubled from month to month. Relying on the peak of the Q4 grid connection period, we expect the company's profit to increase month-on-month in a single quarter. In 2024, under the strong growth rate of domestic wind power, we expect the company to ship 9-10GW, an increase of about 20%, and enter a centralized delivery period with high-profit overseas orders in 2024, and strong profit resilience.
Seabreeze orders are expected to be 0-1 in '24. The company released 13/16MW offshore fans at the Beijing Wind Energy Exhibition in 2023Q4, continuously accelerating the layout of the ocean wind field. The company is making preliminary preparations in Hebei, Shandong and Liaoning, and is expected to achieve a 0-1 breakthrough in Haifeng orders in 2024. Considering the growing momentum of domestic seabreeze installations in the future, the company can greatly expand its business space by entering the Seabreeze Circuit.
Q4 Transfer of a number of wind farms contributed a total profit of 720 million yuan. In 2023, the company transferred a total of 450 MW of 5 power plants, contributing a total profit of 1.3 billion +. Among them, Q4 transferred a total of 200 MW to Tongzhao New Energy and Xiangyu New Energy, increasing the company's total profit by 720 million yuan. The company adheres to a rolling development strategy. In recent years, by expanding the scale of transfers, in January 2024, the company transferred 100MW of the Xiangtong New Energy Project at 292 million yuan. We expect to transfer 1GW+ throughout the year, continuing to enhance the company's profitability.
Investment rating: Considering the company's strong ability to control costs, Haifeng orders are expected to be 0-1 in 2024, and the scale of the transfer of wind farms continues to expand. We basically maintain the company's profit forecast. We expect net profit to the mother of 20.0/24.2/2.87 billion yuan in 2023-2025 (previous value: 18/24/29 billion yuan), an increase of 22/21/ 18%, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: increased competition, policies falling short of expectations, etc.