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江铃汽车(000550):发新品业务周期重启 调结构业绩触底反弹

Jiangling Motors (000550): Launching new products, restarting the business cycle, restructuring, and performance bottomed out and rebounded

國元證券 ·  Feb 22

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The company is a leading domestic light commercial vehicle enterprise with a solid foundation of Sino-foreign joint ventures. With a high dividend ratio, Jiangling Motors is a joint venture between Nanjing Jiangling Investment and Ford Motor. Its products cover light buses, light trucks, pickup trucks, and off-road SUVs all have a certain degree of leadership in the market segment. It has long focused on shareholder returns, and the dividend ratio is high.

The release of major new products led to an increase in sales. High-value products support the company to start a new cycle 2023-2024, and Ford's legendary pickup RANGER and legendary off-road BRONCO, which have global appeal, began localization at Jiangling Motors. As a consumer upgrade product in the market segment, the major new products mentioned above are conducive to a sharp rise in the volume and price of the company's products and a rebound in performance. At the same time, the company's electric intelligent light commercial vehicles began to gain strength, the construction of Ford Zongheng dealerships was accelerated, overseas channels continued to be developed, and a deeper overseas cooperation agreement was reached with Ford to support the company in starting a new development cycle.

The results of cost reduction and efficiency are beginning to be seen, and performance improvements can be expected in the future

In recent years, the company has actively promoted the minimization of the non-performing assets of heavy trucks, calculating depreciation, slimming down, and going to battle lightly. At the same time, various measures are being actively promoted to reduce costs and increase efficiency, management and sales expenses have declined steadily, and profit margins have bottomed out and rebounded. At the same time, in the face of new products, the plan is to lean production by improving efficiency and increasing operating time, minimize costs, and it is expected that new products will be used to improve performance.

Investment advice and profit forecasting

Taking into account the large-scale benefits brought about by the company's new product launch and sales expansion, as well as the optimization of the company's system, continuous cost reduction and efficiency, and focusing on the results of the main business, it is estimated that in 2023-2025, the company's net profit to mother will be 1,475\ 17.82\ 2,058 billion yuan, an increase of 61.24%\ 20.78%\ 15.48% over the previous year, corresponding to the overall PE of A-shares 13.49\ 11.17\ 9.67x. This is the first coverage, giving a “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning

The appeal of the Ford brand in the domestic market falls short of the expected risk, the development of electric intelligence falls short of the expected risk, the pace of popularity of models in market segments such as pickup trucks and off-road is slower than expected risk, the risk that production and distribution system costs exceed expectations, and the risk that overseas market expansion falls short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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