Finance Association, Feb. 24 (Editor Wei Qi): We learned from Nanjing University that the large-scale all-perovskite photovoltaic module developed by Professor Tan Hairen's research team at the university has achieved a new breakthrough. After testing by an authoritative international third party agency, its steady-state photoelectric conversion efficiency reached 24.5%, breaking the world record for such modules and laying the technical foundation for subsequent industrialization development. The relevant paper was published in the international academic journal “Science” on February 23.

Perovskite batteries are named because their photoelectric conversion layer uses a perovskite structure, which refers to a class of materials with the general chemical formula ABX3. In ABX3 crystals, BX6 forms a regular octahedron, and BX6 is connected through a common vertex X to form a three-dimensional skeleton. A is embedded in the octahedral gap to stabilize the crystal structure.

Perovskite has the characteristics of light weight, flexibility, and low light, and has a wide range of downstream application scenarios. (1) Photovoltaic building integration (BIPV). Perovskite can be naturally translucent and the color is adjustable, so it can be used both as a power generation curtain wall and as a power generation stone. (2) Roof photovoltaics. Cars are relatively sensitive to area and weight. Lightweight perovskite components are one of the ideal materials. (3) Mobile devices and electronic products. Perovskite can be prepared at low temperatures. It can be made into flexible devices and used in mobile power supplies for wearable electronic products. (4) Networked sensors. Perovskite has good low-light power generation performance. It can provide a reliable and stable power source for IoT sensors under indoor low light conditions, making the Internet of Things lighter and more reliable. (5) For large-scale terrestrial power plants and distributed photovoltaics, perovskite has high theoretical conversion efficiency, and can be stacked with crystalline silicon cells to achieve higher conversion efficiency. It has great potential for future development in the photovoltaic power plant scenario.

Perovskite components can be produced in a single plant, which is significantly shorter than the crystal silicon production chain. Crystalline silicon battery production usually needs to go through multiple factories such as silicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components. If the transportation process between different plants is not taken into account, it takes about 3 days from silicon material to component completion. Compared with crystalline silicon components, the production process for perovskite components has been greatly shortened. Raw materials such as glass, film, targets, and chemical raw materials can be manufactured through a single factory assembly line, and component molding only takes about 45 minutes. At the same time, perovskite preparation conditions are mild, which can effectively reduce production energy consumption.

However, long-term stability has always been the main problem faced by perovskite batteries, causing their theoretical life to be significantly lower than that of crystalline silicon. Perovskite materials have poor stability and are prone to decomposition. There is a loss of efficiency in preparing large area perovskite batteries, and the manufacturing process requirements are high. Currently, the cost of perovskite is still high, and technological progress and scale-up are expected to help reduce costs. According to Solarzoom estimates, at the price level at the beginning of January 2024, when the silicon material is around 60,000 yuan/ton, the cost of a PERC module per watt is about 0.8 yuan/W when the main crystalline silicon industry chain is integrated. According to Electro-Solar Energy, the 100 megawatt perovskite pilot phase cost is about 1.5-1.6 yuan/W.

According to the Huachuang Securities Research Report, the gradual penetration of perovskite technology is expected to drive rapid growth in the equipment and perovskite component market. (1) Equipment market space. Assuming that the penetration rate of perovskite gradually increases from 0.2% to 15.5% in 2024-2030, and the investment in perovskite equipment drops to about 500 million yuan/GW after large-scale mass production, it is estimated that the new global market space for perovskite equipment will reach 83.06 billion yuan by 2030, and the CAGR is about 80% in 2024-2030. (2) Perovskite module market space. The global perovskite module market space is expected to reach 181.6 billion yuan by 2030, and the CAGR is about 108% from 2024-2030.

In response to the investment opportunities brought about by the industrialization of perovskite batteries, Guojin Securities believes that there are three main directions: the first direction is to provide coating equipment, coating equipment, or key laser equipment manufacturers for the preparation of various functional layers of perovskite, focusing on Jiejia Weichuang, Maiwei Co., Ltd., Jingshan Light Machinery, and focusing on Jepter, Delon Laser, Mannst, and DeShanghai coatings; direction 2 is related material companies that are expected to benefit from changes in packaging systems brought about by perovskite industrialization, focusing on Jinjing Technology and Yaopi Glass; the third direction is perovskite production capacity layout Relatively advanced Leading manufacturing companies focus on recommending GCL Technology, focusing on Longji Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., Jingke Energy, Sienna Optoelectronics, Renshuo Solar Energy, and Polaroid Solar Energy.