Source: Tianfeng International

Last week$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$,$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$,$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$+2.36%, +3.71%, +1.71%, respectively. The net capital inflow to the south this week was about 18.3 billion yuan. The USD/RMB offshore exchange rate was generally stable this week, closing at 7.2044 on 2/23. The Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound after the holiday season, the domestic financial sector stepped up efforts to support the expansion of domestic demand, overseas US inflation data strengthened, and OpenAI continued to update the latest Sora Wensheng video on TikTok.

On the domestic side, 1) On February 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Loan Center to announce that the 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and the LPR for 5 years or more is 3.95%. Since 2023, major banks have lowered deposit interest rates several times, and some small and medium-sized banks have also followed up adjustments, and commercial banks' debt-side costs have declined. 2) From February 18 to 19, the Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of symposiums to listen extensively to opinions and suggestions from various parties on strengthening capital market supervision, preventing and mitigating risks, and promoting high-quality capital market development. The Securities Regulatory Commission will take more measures to stabilize the market and boost investor confidence.

Overseas, 1) On Thursday, February 22, according to the latest data from S&P Global (S&P Global), the US Markit manufacturing industry improved in February compared to January, and continued to be above the boom and bust line (50 is the watershed), recording the fastest growth since September 2022, mainly benefiting from strong order growth. The initial value of Markit's manufacturing PMI in February was 51.5, a 17-month high. The forecast was 50.7, compared to 50.7 before January. Among them, the order index climbed to the highest level since May 2022, and the factory output index reached its highest level in 10 months.

As of February 23, the Hang Seng Index's 12-month outlook PE has discounted 2 standard deviations from the median since 2019, and is at the historical quantile value of about 5%; the Hang Seng Index has discounted 3.6 standard deviations from the median in 2019, at the 1.9% quantile since 2019; the Hang Seng Index equity risk premium is 1.4 standard deviations higher than the historical median, at about 82% of the historical quantile. It is recommended to focus on the growth value and revaluation opportunities of internet platforms, new consumption, new power targets, and the defensive value of high-quality and high-dividend targets.

Investment advice:

1) Internet platform:【$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$],【$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$],【$TENCENT (00700.HK)$],【$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$],【$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$]【$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$];

2) Highly elastic targets:【$MEITU (01357.HK)$],【$WEIMOB INC (02013.HK)$],【$MAOYAN ENT (01896.HK)$],【$Full Truck Alliance (YMM.US)$];

3) New forces: [$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$],【$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$];

4) New consumption: [$POP MART (09992.HK)$],【$MNSO (09896.HK)$],【$Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US)$];

5) It is expected to benefit from the reversal of policy dilemmas【$NEW ORIENTAL-S (09901.HK)$]【$TAL Education (TAL.US)$] etc.

(Note: Meituan, Bubble Mart, and Mingchuang Premium are jointly covered by trading companies; Pinduoduo is jointly covered by textile and clothing; Meitu is jointly covered by computers; Ideal Auto and Xiaopeng are covered by automobiles; and New Oriental is covered by textile clothing)

Risk warning: US and European markets face continued interest rate hikes and high inflation rates; repeated risk of domestic epidemics; domestic economic growth is slowing; policy stimulus effects are insufficient

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