盈利预测及投资建议。预计23-25 年国泰集团EPS 分别为0.51、0.63、0.72 元/股。相较可比公司，公司构建民爆一体化+军工新材料+轨交自动化及信息化产业协同发展全新业务版图，成长曲线丰富，我们认为适合给予公司24 年业绩18 倍的PE 估值，对应合理价值11.29 元/股，给予“买入”评级。Core views:
A leading enterprise in the regional civil explosion industry in Jiangxi Province. The company is an important civilian explosive equipment manufacturer in Jiangxi Province. Its main business is the integration of R&D, production, sales and blasting services of civilian blasting equipment. Its main products are civilian blasting equipment such as industrial explosives, industrial detonators and industrial cables. It is one of the most comprehensive civilian blasting equipment manufacturers in the country. While continuously expanding the scale of production and sales of explosives equipment, the company is also actively providing integrated blasting services for mines and infrastructure projects. The company has entered the civil-military integration industry in multiple dimensions, and has laid out various military industry businesses such as new military materials, military simulation, and military fine chemicals.
Core investment logic: (1) Civilian explosion business: The output value of the explosion industry has been growing steadily in recent years, and industry profits have clearly recovered from January to November 2023. The penetration rate of digital electronic detonator products continues to increase under policy drive, and in the context of supply-side capacity removal, the company, as a regional leader in the civilian explosion industry, is expected to fully benefit from the increase in the concentration of the explosion industry. In the first half of 2023, the company sold a total of 14.0241 million industrial electronic detonators, an increase of 316% over the previous year. The company's electronic detonator sales increased dramatically. At the same time, the scale effect brought about by the company's increase in electronic detonator production and sales is also expected to further increase the company's profitability. (2) Military business: The company was formerly a subsidiary of the Jiangxi National Defense Science and Engineering Office. Currently, the controlling shareholder is Jiangxi Military Holding Group, which is a military enterprise with rich resources. The company has subsidiaries in various military related industries, including new military materials, military simulation, and military fine chemicals. The company's military industry has multiple business lines going hand in hand, and development can be expected.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Cathay Pacific Group EPS is expected to be 0.51, 0.63, and 0.72 yuan/share in 23-25, respectively. Compared with comparable companies, the company has built a new business layout for the collaborative development of civilian explosives integration+new military materials+rail transit automation and information technology industries. The growth curve is rich. We think it is appropriate to give a PE valuation of 18 times the company's 24-year performance, corresponding to a reasonable value of 11.29 yuan/share, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of policy changes; risk of increased market competition; risk of new project construction progress falling short of expectations; risk of macroeconomic cycle fluctuations.
